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Why Jorge Masvidal will beat Damian Maia. It's simple math

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Nothing against Maia but I would like to see Jorge crush him

 

I honestly think it's possible, he just has to keep it standing and it should be an easy win

 

With an 80% TDD if is not only possible but highly probable. 

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With an 80% TDD if is not only possible but highly probable. 

 

I get that, but it just takes that one time you make a mistake and then you're on your back with Maia on top of you

 

You could have 100% TDD and it could happen

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I get that, but it just takes that one time you make a mistake and then you're on your back with Maia on top of you

 

You could have 100% TDD and it could happen

That's true but Maia can survive, he's very crafty. Maia always gassess from the weight cut, he'll only be love in the first round imo.

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this is the best I have ever seen Maia. his last three fights have been good and getting better.

 

whatever else he seems to be on form

He's fighting **** opponents that are making him look way better than he is. He's 40 yrs old he's not improving...

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has fought far better fighters than Masvidal.

 

does that matter?

Yes it matters. Maias wrestling is pretty lackluster. Seeing him take down fighters with terrible take down defense does matter. Gamebred has phenomenal TDD, literally the second best that Maias ever fought. That matters

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The below fighters have all beaten Damian Maia, and they all have one thing in common, their TDD average is unusually high. Their combined average is 66%. The adjusted rate is 71% without Shields.

 

Rory Mcdonald - 89% TDD (made Damain look like a fool, stuffed 12 TD's)

Jake Shields - 39% (he is just better at bjj, he honestly shouldn't even count)

Chris Weidman - 71% (beat him easily on 1 weeks notice)

Mark Munoz - 58% (destroyed him)

Anderson Silva - 69% (he blocked all 13 takedown attempts)

Nate Marquhardt - 72% (annihilated him)

 

All the below fighters who have lost to Damian Maia have a lower TDD average, none above the 71% threshold and only one above the 66% threshold. 

 

Carlos Condit - 39% TDD  (lol are you serious bro?)

Matt Brown - 63% (ok not bad but Matt is a can and as usual Maia gassed in the 3rd rd)

Gunnar Nelson 70% (not bad but Gunnar isn't a sprawl and brawler, hes a bjj guy)

Neil magny - 59% (can)

Ryan Laflare - 65% (can)

Jon Fitch - 56% (can)

Kendall Grove 57% (can)

 

 

Here is:

 

Jorge Masvidal - 80% TDD (Jorge is well above the TDD threshold needed to beat Maia)

 

Jorge is going to stuff all the TD attempts, then rain down deadly hands until old man Maia is out COLD. Round 2/3 KO after Maia gasses from repeatedly lunging his body at Gamebreds crotch.

 

 

It also depends who your TDD average is against. If youve fought no one whose elite at taking down then your TDD average should be high. Then you might fight someone whose elite at taking down and he will just rip your TDD average to shreds.

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It also depends who your TDD average is against. If youve fought no one whose elite at taking down then your TDD average should be high. Then you might fight someone whose elite at taking down and he will just rip your TDD average to shreds.

Agreed.

 

It's a real blessing that Maias takedown average is only 30%, so he's not even close to being elite in that regard. Gamebred shouldn't have any problems keeping Maia from getting him down.

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Agreed.

 

It's a real blessing that Maias takedown average is only 30%, so he's not even close to being elite in that regard. Gamebred shouldn't have any problems keeping Maia from getting him down.

 

Wow didnt realise it was so low. I thought the ground game was his bread and butter. Hes even ****ter than I thought he was then. How the **** did he beat Gunnar Nelson? He must have gotten lucky.

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Agreed.

 

It's a real blessing that Maias takedown average is only 30%, so he's not even close to being elite in that regard. Gamebred shouldn't have any problems keeping Maia from getting him down.

 

Hold up! Hes got 12 subs. Surely the subs must have happened on the ground. So even though his take down average may be **** once he gets you to the ground the percentage that he will finish you off is very high. You should never look too much as percentages.

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Wow didnt realise it was so low. I thought the ground game was his bread and butter. Hes even ****ter than I thought he was then. How the **** did he beat Gunnar Nelson? He must have gotten lucky.

Yea Maia is no elite TD artist like GSP, who has a 74% takedown success average. He's good because he doesn't stop trying, he'll attempt 10 **** takedowns just to secure 1. He beat Gunnar because Gunnar thought he could beat Maia on the ground. He held his own for a bit but underestimated Maias BJJ in comparison to his own. If Gunnar went in with a sprawl and brawl mentality I say he could win. He was just too happy to grapple with Maia, something that Masvidal will not entertain.

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Hold up! Hes got 12 subs. Surely the subs must have happened on the ground. So even though his take down average may be **** once he gets you to the ground the percentage that he will finish you off is very high. You should never look too much as percentages.

Yes he has the equivalent of one punch knockout power, with his submissions. However, not everyone is susceptible to being submitted by him even when taken down. Like Rory McDonald for example. I feel Gamebred can survive on the ground with Maia, if Matt Brown managed for 2 and a half rounds I like Jorges chances.

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Yes he has the equivalent of one punch knockout power, with his submissions. However, not everyone is susceptible to being submitted by him even when taken down. Like Rory McDonald for example. I feel Gamebred can survive on the ground with Maia, if Matt Brown managed for 2 and a half rounds I like Jorges chances.

 

I agree with your points but TBH I think its about levels and I dont think Masdival is on the same level as Maia. I think Maia will win by sub.

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I agree with your points but TBH I think its about levels and I dont think Masdival is on the same level as Maia. I think Maia will win by sub.

I feel Masvidals wrestling is on another level compared to Maias, as well as his striking. Maia might give him a tough first round, but he'll gas like always and Mas will take over and finish him with strikes or a ud.

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with that said, I bet Jorge turns Damians face into raw beaten mcdonalds hamburger meat, even worse than what Anderson did

with THAT said, I also said I changed my mind leading up to the face offs, in my previous comment

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Remember when I said all this when Jorge was a +135 dog and now he's the -135 fav when people did the research like me

I could easily pretend that Jorge will win to boost my rank as p4p poster and get forum popularity but **** I gotta be real here

 

Maia blankets bigger guys

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so explain the 11 loses to guys who are way beneath Maia in the rankings.

realistically he could easily be on a 10 fight winning streak

 

I just think Maia is going to have a massive size advantage

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realistically he could easily be on a 10 fight winning streak

 

I just think Maia is going to have a massive size advantage

 

Jorge Masvidal is 22-0 in his last 22 fights.

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Yeah got to say don't think that mma math works.

 

All of those loses were at Middleweight against generally bigger guys.

 

Masvdial dropped a decision to a guy who's fighting at Bantamweight now.

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Yeah got to say don't think that mma math works.

 

All of those loses were at Middleweight against generally bigger guys.

 

Masvdial dropped a decision to a guy who's fighting at Bantamweight now.

This is not mma math. Mma math is saying fighter A beat fighter B, who beat fighter C, so obviously fighter C will lose to fighter A.

 

What I did was a statistical analysis, breaking down different take down differentials of all Maias opponents and figured out a pattern of how he loses and why.

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