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Everything posted by UFCExcession

  1. I've done trebles and up on: Penn Rivera Lytle Fischer Noke Ring I would far prefer Ross to win but as I'm betting on a UK site (Will Hill - where my poker money is) the value is usually in betting against the Brit.
  2. Looking at putting a few ? down - looks to me like the underdog value is in Penn and the lock for doubles/trebles is George.
  3. Might be best to wait until he has one or two successful title defences before giving him the title for the next 3-4 years. Page defended successfully once. Griffin didn't defend successfully. Evans didn't defend successfully. Machida defended successfully once (but barely). Rua has a rock hard chin, excellent technical striking and good BJJ. His cardio is also back up to 100%. His only weakness is takedown defence - which happens to be a bad weakness to have vs both Evans and Jon Jones. Let's see him defend against both of those before we claim he's unbeatable eh? We saw what just happened to Silva (whose striking after all is far further ahead of the rest of his division than Rua's is)
  4. MT in the cage for sure. In the street likely a system that includes strikes to eyes/neck/groin etc.. I assume ninjitsu focuses on a lot of stuff like that that's banned in sports environment (such as eye/groin strikes and small joint manipulation) but don't have any clue about how effective its practitioners would be in a real fight..
  5. About this time last year we had as champs: BJ GSP Andersen Machida Lesnar And the talk on the boards was how it was tough to see any of them losing in the near future. Since then BJ has been outboxed by Edgar, Andersen got GnP'ed by Sonnen for 4.5 rounds, Machida got owned by Shogun twice and Lesnar got pummelled to within a whisker of TKO by Carwin. GSP has managed a couple of pretty overwhelming LnP victories against strikers but they were hardly highlight reel stuff. Although it's nice to buy into the myth of champs as unbeatable supermen, the reality is that, as the level of MMA continues to climb, holding onto a belt for long will get harder and harder.
  6. Unless Anderson steps up there's really only Jones, Machida and Evans in the mix. Evans was due the next title shot anyway, so his name would go forward for any interim belt fight. Machida has the strongest claim to fight for an interim belt as the only guy that has beaten him is the injured champ (and he has beaten Franklin and Evans as well). I don't think that match would go well for Evans (as he can't outstrike Machida or take him down easily and Machida clearly has the power to trouble him). Evans/Jones would be a great fight though as would any of them vs Anderson.
  7. I think Rashad is a worse match-up for Rua than Machida. Machida could take Rua down easily enough but he has no real ground control game. He relies on being the best striker and on being impossible to take down thanks to his balance/sumo. Rashad is about takedowns and top control. I can't see him failing to take Rua down if the fight goes for any time (Rua's takedown defence is probably his weakest link - decent but not really top notch) - so the question will be whether he can avoid Rua's (admittedly pretty sick) BJJ subs..if he can for 5 rounds he is going to come out with a lay n pray win (and he might always get lucky with some GnP as well). I think anyone in the division (except maybe Anderson is he moves up) is a dog to Rua, but I don't write-off Evans' chances at all.
  8. Grove or Leben I think. Both good match ups stylistically. Of the higher ranked fighters Bisping's best chance would be trying to outbox Maia - Maia is sick on the ground of course but Bisping could probably fend off his takedowns...
  9. UFCExcession

    Got Lucky

    LOL - managed to quad up my money by betting on George, Kendall and Brock as a trixie - think I got lucky though. UFC 116 was great - all decent fights.
  10. I'm too lazy to hunt around for best odds but thought I might throw a few $$ of my poker winnings into UFC 116 betting tonight on the linked sports book: I'm in UK so this is all legal etc. Do you think any of these dogs offer good value at the prices quoted? I'm thinking Grove Brown and Leben look decent bets (Grove and Brown because of technique and Leben because of his power) - not too sure about the others... UFC 116 Kendall Grove +125 Chris Tuchscherer +250 Jon Madsen +110 Kurt Pellegrino +150 Matt Brown +150 Chris Leben +175
  11. Rua is a better match-up for Rashad than Machida is IMHO Actually Rashad is tougher for Shogun to beat as well... Just about Shogun's only current weakness is his TD defence. Rashad's best area is his takedowns. Sure Rashad has to avoid gettong KTFO coming in and also Rua's sick BJJ once on top - but the odds are that he's going to put Rua on his back a lot if the fight lasts any time at all. Rashad has some chance against Rua. He has very little against Lyoto (whose Sumo based TDD is sick frankly)..
  12. I think after his total domination of Vera and Hamill he is already top 5. I think him v Evans or Page would be an awesome fight. I think his striking power/speed and his wrestling are more or less on a par with Evans with his GnP being a bit better. He is less experienced though. I suspect he would just Gnp Thiago. Although the top 2 are a cut above the rest in LHW, his style matches up well vs Rua (who is awesome in all respects but one at the moment - hits hard, great technical striker, chin like a rock and great BJJ - but his TD defence is so so at best and Jones would slam him to the ground for sure ) -I don't anyone in the division is anything but a dog to Rua (at least so long as Anderson isn't in it), but I think Jones has a decent chance of GnP'ing him out. Ironically I suspect Jones' worst match-up of the top 5 is Machida (if his head is still together) as he could stand with him and is such a beast to get down. No point in giving him any opponent outside top 5 or 6 IMHO - he would murder them...I really thought Hamill was going to get killed in the ring due to that stupid referee...
  13. He won't get Thiago Silva again - he beat him only 3 fights ago. I think we might be in for a bit of a rock paper scissors world in LHW. Rua has a fantastic chin and has Machida's number. Maybe Anderson Silva could out-strike him but that's about it - on the other hand, his TD defence isn't that great and someone like Evans or Jon Jones could well beat him (if they can avoid the BJJ of course which is a easier said that done). But the wrestlers have fits trying to beat Machida as they can't take him down so have to try to outstrike him (which unless they have chins of granite isn't easy). I can't see past Rua, Machida, Evans, Jon Jones and Anderson Silva for the top 5 slots at LHW in the next couple of years - but I don't expect one man to hold the title for long - after all we've had Griffin/Evans/Machida and Rua as champs over the past 5 title fights and the division is getting more not less stacked..
  14. UFCExcession

    Shogun Vs ?

    The best thing about Rua winning this division is that there are so many good match-ups that will give us great fights. If Machida had won he would basically have cleaned out the division until Jones was ready.. Off the top of my head Anderson Silva (that would be truly dope) Thiago Silva Evans Jones and I guess Page would be entertaining but I'd expect Rua to win that again..not sure where Page is mentally or physically these days - guess we'll soon see.
  15. What Daley did is explicable (given Kos' s cheating and whispering in his ear etc) but not justifiable. It was unprofessional. Hitting folks after the bell (or when knocked out) is the sort of stuff that could get the UFC banned. I still think that comment of Dan Henderson's in the news conference about hitting Bisping when he knew he was out wouldn't have helped his contract negotiations. It was far worse in terms of risk to the sport than anything Brock ever said..
  16. Rua has excellent BJJ. That Machida (who is international standard in Sumo) could take him down isn't really a surprise (after all he has superb balance and managed to throw Tito around the ring with one arm like a rag doll as I recall) but Machida was never going to inflict any damage and had to be very careful of the BJJ. A wrestler with excellent ground and pound could knock him out I guess or with good submission defence (over 5 rounds of course) could lay n pray him but that's about it. I always thought Evans would be an interesting match-up for him..or Jon Bones Jones and his wicked GnP elbows of course...but both would still be significant dogs..
  17. Good fight this one - props to both guys ...
  18. I think the biggest tactical problem was that Machida had to alter his stance to defend against Rua's leg kicks. Classic Shotokan stances have as much as 70% of the weight on the front foot. Freestyle stances maybe 50/50. In getting ready to check or avoid the kicks Machida switched to a much less deep stance - once he did this he lost most of his renowned evasion and general mobility. He also couldn't kick as easily from that flat stance. He also switched tactics to take Rua down (which was sensible from the point of view of scoring points even if he was never going to do much damage there because of Rua's BJJ) - but that also meant he had to let Rua get in close. That really increased the risk of Rua simply connecting at some point and that's what we got - a definitive KTFO...but it all flowed from the adjustments Machida had to make to try to answer Rua's leg kicks that so dominated the first bout..
  19. Just so pumped to see two of the best MMA fighters in the world go toe to toe again. Up to Machida to mix it up now as he strategically lost the last fight. Thing is he has the skillset to do it too. I can't see Rua trying to take this to the ground (as another poster suggested). Sure he probably has the better BJJ but no wrestling and Machida's Sumo based take down defense is one of the best in the division. Remember how he threw Tito around like a rag doll? I think a lot is going to depend on how Machida deals with Rua's kicks and how much the injuries took away from Machida's game last time. But deal with those kicks he must..
  20. 'no way can he knock out shogun, only way he can beat shogun is by slightly outpointing him, he will not submit him or knock him out, shogun CAN knock him out' I think they both respect the other's power - they certainly did in the first fight. I would have thought that anyone watching the T Silva and Evans fights would have a healthy respect for Machida's KO power. That said Machida has to change up his game plan or lose this time. So the onus is on him to prove he can change..although checking the kicks and not breaking his hands might be a good start... Going to be a great fight between two great MMA practitioners whatever...
  21. Add Carwin to HW Add Jones to LHW (and maybe Rashad and Lil Nog) Add Kos and Daley to WW And I'd say it's about there...
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