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Nick Diaz Vs Carlos Condit - The Hardest Fight To Predict


Melvinj0

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So I signed into Tapology.com today to make my predictions for UFC 143 and I realized that it is almost impossible for me to predict the winner of Diaz/Condit. Imo they are just so evenly matched skill wise. They both have excellent stand up and they both can handle themselves on the ground. Its going to be an amazing fight, one that we will go down in MMA history im sure. I may just have to close my eyes and randomly pick one of these guys because when it comes down to it I just can't figure out which guy will win. Im not really going to be rooting for either guy since I like them both, im just going to sit back and enjoy the fight :)

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I dunno' date=' Carlos has never done that before that I know of. Besides, [u']Diaz isn't going to let that happen[/u] even if Condit tried.

 

Actually he has let it happen in the past. IMO it's the only guaranteed path to victory for his opponents. Other tactics have huge risks involved. I also believe he can be outboxed. Someone needs to get inside on him, push him back and use short tight punches. I can see someone like Rick Story doing to Nick Diaz what he did to Thiago Alves.

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I'll laugh so hard if Condit wall and stalls his way to the title.

 

lol

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In Daley Vs. Diaz. Diaz got rock by Daley a couple time and Condit is much more smooth, stronger striker and on top of that his an orthodox fighter. Diaz as an advantage on the ground, I can see him winning by points or submission but knowing Diaz he probably try to bang with Carlos.

 

I say Carlos has 55 % chance of winning but Nick Diaz has a better chance of winning against GSP but he wont lol. Nah-I-Mean brah

 

I like both fighter so I dont care who win.

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Actually he has let it happen in the past. IMO it's the only guaranteed path to victory for his opponents. Other tactics have huge risks involved. I also believe he can be outboxed. Someone needs to get inside on him' date=' push him back and use short tight punches. I can see someone like Rick Story doing to Nick Diaz what he did to Thiago Alves.[/quote']

 

He has let alot of things happen to him in his past fights, but he just seems like a whole new fighter to me. If someone tried to wall n stall on him now I think he would find a way to either get out of it or get it to the ground.

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lol

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In Daley Vs. Diaz. Diaz got rock by Daley a couple time and Condit is much more smooth' date=' stronger striker and on top of that his an orthodox fighter. Diaz as an advantage on the ground, I can see him winning by points or submission but knowing Diaz he probably try to bang with Carlos.

 

I say Carlos has 55 % chance of winning but Nick Diaz has a better chance of winning against GSP but he wont lol. Nah-I-Mean brah

 

I like both fighter so I dont care who win.[/quote']

 

Penn is a lot more of a smooth striker too and we all know what happened to him.

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Actually he has let it happen in the past. IMO it's the only guaranteed path to victory for his opponents. Other tactics have huge risks involved. I also believe he can be outboxed. Someone needs to get inside on him' date=' push him back and use short tight punches. I can see someone like Rick Story doing to Nick Diaz what he did to Thiago Alves.[/quote']

 

Don't forget outside low kicks. Diaz has a square stance and walks directly forward. His first round with Cyborg is the perfect example of what well placed low kicks look like against Nick...(Not Bashing, just analyzing) Mixing it more than 1-dimensional Cyborg is where Condit fights his fight against Nick.

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lol

-

 

In Daley Vs. Diaz. Diaz got rock by Daley a couple time and Condit is much more smooth' date=' stronger striker[/b'] and on top of that his an orthodox fighter. Diaz as an advantage on the ground, I can see him winning by points or submission but knowing Diaz he probably try to bang with Carlos.

 

I say Carlos has 55 % chance of winning but Nick Diaz has a better chance of winning against GSP but he wont lol. Nah-I-Mean brah

 

I like both fighter so I dont care who win.

 

:rolleyes:

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He has let alot of things happen to him in his past fights' date=' [b']but he just seems like a whole new fighter to me[/b]. If someone tried to wall n stall on him now I think he would find a way to either get out of it or get it to the ground.

 

That's called hype. He's a little overrated right now IMO. He's gone from being champ of a second rate organisation where he beat up a lightweight, and got beat up by cyborg before getting a sub, to a back and forth war with a one dimensional ufc reject who spams his only power punch.... then comes to the ufc and beats another lightweight who some argued to be washed up prior to that...

 

Considering all this, I really believe this is Nick's true test. He beats Condit, the hype is warranted IMO. If he loses, well then it just proves me right about him being overrated. I'm going to enjoy watching him take his test regardless.

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It's not that hard to predict. Condit is a fun fighter and everyone likes him because of his killer instinct but he's not as good as everybody is making him out to be. I have a feeling he's going to throw whatever gameplan he has out the window and turn it into a brawl that will result badly for him, something similar to Cerrone and Nate.

 

He's not gonna be able to put Nick away with that little punch he landed on hardy and I doubt he'll get lucky with a flying knee again. He may have a strong first or second round but won't be able to keep up with Diaz.

 

You can't set out to try and prove a point with these guys, you'll beat yourself with the mental game.

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In the last 3 or 4 fights i have seen Diaz win (including Penn) they have all been fairly even until his opponent gassed out and couldnt keep up with the pressure he can bring. If you look at the beating that Carlos took from both Macdonald and Ellenburger before coming back to win I think he will be able to take the pace.

 

I also think that height and reach is going to be a factor, Diaz is used to having an advantage in both areas and his boxing style is based around being able to pepper his opponents at distance, then close when they are covering up. He wont have that in this fight, if anything he will be at a disadvantage because Condit is such a good kicker.

 

I think styles make fights and Condit has the style to take this one, so much so that ive got ?100 bet on Condit. So it will be either strippers and beers or home made pizza and tears after the fight.

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I hope Condit wins and he definitely has a great chance, but I think it'll be Diaz who wins by a close decision just due to the combinations he'll throw.

 

If there's a finish, I say it'll be by Condit getting a TKO unless he gasses then Diaz could get one by the 4th round but I think Condits conditions is reasonable sound.

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It is actually impossible to predict most fights because we really have no clue what the fighters game plan or train of though is going into the fight.I have seen some fighters that look to have had a total IQ loss before their fight because they fought right out of their realm and into the other guys realm.

 

I asked myself,what makes so many fighters fight dumb.I think it is a combination of fatigue/weight cutting/adrenaline/loss of focus due to anger ect ect.

 

IMO this fight would be easy to predict if both fighters fought the way they should be fighting,but i highly doubt that will happen.

 

On paper Diaz is the bigger guy and has superior cardio.So he should be forcing a grappling game and use his BJJ to submit Condit.He SHOULD do this IF he knows how Condit would fight and that is Condit SHOULD be trying to wrestle Diaz.

 

I doubt either fighter will use brains,Diaz will come out and try to pitty pat jab his way hoping Condit tires.Condit will come out looking for that one punch KO,which rarely happens in the sport.One punch Ko's happen via early luck or when the other fighter is so tired or beat,he is susceptible to a ko.

 

Soooooooo

No way in hell Condit is a champ if he is going in there looking for a LUCKY KO.It might happen,but it is not a strat champions are made of.No way in hell Condit is going to wear Diaz down and get him to where he is susceptible.Bottom line is Condit also loses the reach advantage,so no way in hell should be doing any kind of prolonged striking.

 

Diaz has little power,so he cannot get in an early power trade off,so he SHOULD be staying at his reach advantage and doing his pitty pat thing.You know the part where a 6'2 grown man slash fighter throws 300 punches and still can't KO anyone.

 

So if both fighters realize their pros and cons,it should be a VERY difficult fight to predict.What is sad is that i feel Condit will be the one to get outsmart by a not so smart Diaz.

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Ive been watching a lot of condit's fight and re-watching diaz' fights. And there are completly different gameplans, i think Nick has more experience facing stronger and diverse MMA fighters, also he has been rocked, ko'ed and stopped, but always survived and improved. you see, Condit its been saying has a lot of skills, multples angles, flying knees, kicks and stuff, but when you confront a hard opponent like Nick, isnt just flashing all your skills, when you have a weaker fighter in front maybe you can take the risk, but i dont think a good gameplan being over confindent with Diaz.

 

About the power striking of Diaz, i think is completly UNDERSTIMATED, just because he dont KO with 1 punch doesnt mean he CANT. as a sportfan i like entertainment, excitement, maybe a 4 secs fight its like WOW! but to watch 3 o 5 rounds of punches everywhere, demolishing a body, mind and soul it yet more exciting. I think Nick likes to play the game, not just finish the game, to show he's superior to his opponent and the fans like that.

 

I see Nick taking hard punches, maybe rocked but in the end hammer smashing face carlos condit. He's boxing its absolutly superior and his ground game its also so good.

 

No question to me, but in MMA one punch can change everything... though i trust in nick's chin....

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lol

-

 

In Daley Vs. Diaz. Diaz got rock by Daley a couple time and Condit is much more smooth' date=' stronger striker and on top of that his an orthodox fighter. Diaz as an advantage on the ground, I can see him winning by points or submission but knowing Diaz he probably try to bang with Carlos.

 

I say Carlos has 55 % chance of winning but Nick Diaz has a better chance of winning against GSP but he wont lol. Nah-I-Mean brah

 

I like both fighter so I dont care who win.[/quote']

 

Daley is a better kickboxer than Condit. His muay thai is world class and has the best clinch in the whole division. Daley just gasses and gets over confident is his striking and gets to agressive. His ground game is awful so Condit is a much better fighter!

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Nice thread and good mature discussions, color me surprised and delighted!

 

As someone pointed out already, Condit showed in his fights with Macdonald and Ellenberger just how susceptible he is to a taller, accurate striking fighter. The big difference is though this is a 5 round fight against a guy who runs triathlons in his off time. Diaz won't wilt in the third and allow Condit the comeback oppurtunity.

 

This is a super hard fight to call either way. Both guys are tough as nails and will bring it. I personally just think Diaz' Gracie jj is better than Condit's Jackson Gym grappling, and his boxing pace and accuracy along with the best use of body punches in the business gives him the striking edge as well.

 

If this fight is finished by strikes by either fighter, it will be a doctor or ref stoppage, but I doubt we will see a standing KO/TKO since both these guys can eat punishment for days. If the decision comes down to striking it will be Diaz all day simply through volume and accuracy.

 

If it is decided in the grappling game it will come down to a Diaz sub, or Condit takes the Greg Jackson approach and "controls" from inside Diaz' gaurd for a weak points decision.

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lol

-

 

In Daley Vs. Diaz. Diaz got rock by Daley a couple time and Condit is much more smooth' date=' stronger striker and on top of that his an orthodox fighter. Diaz as an advantage on the ground, I can see him winning by points or submission but knowing Diaz he probably try to bang with Carlos.

 

I say Carlos has 55 % chance of winning but Nick Diaz has a better chance of winning against GSP but he wont lol. Nah-I-Mean brah

 

I like both fighter so I dont care who win.[/quote']

 

Condit doesnt have anywhere near the power of daley in his hands, daley is a far superior striker in my opinion. i am expecting diaz to win, but we will have to see. :D

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I'll laugh so hard if Condit wall and stalls his way to the title.

 

Not gonna happen. Would never happen, he's not called the Natural Born Killer for no reason. And I totally agree Melvin, this is a really hard fight to predict. It's gonna come down to who can implement their game plan better and who is better that day.

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Personally I hope Diaz takes it' date=' just so we can see if GSP will live up to his word and put a beating on him. Objectively speaking this fight is pretty much impossible to call.[/quote']

 

I do believe he'd bully Diaz. Beat him up with body shots and GNP from half guard.

 

I agree with what most people have said.

 

Boxing - Diaz

Kicks - Condit

Knees - Condit

Cardio - Diaz (close)

Agressiveness - Diaz (close)

Accuracy - Diaz (close)

Wrestling - Condit

BJJ - Diaz (close)

Experience - Even

Strategy - Even

Power - Condit (close)

 

Very close fight. Both guys finish and are hard to finish. In saying that, I'll go with Condit round two tko. Head kick followed by a flurry, ref stops it.

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