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Roy Nelson vs Fabricio Werdum. Who you got?


Enigma_Machine

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TLDR summary at the bottom of this post!!

 

Come in and vote on who you think will win and give opinions!

 

Here's how I'm looking at this fight.

 

Roy Nelson is a big dude who once he gets a dominant position he uses his weight to hold you there and force a ref stoppage. I was literally in shock when they announced Big Roy vs Junior Dos Santos.

 

At the time in my opinion Roy was nowhere near that level, having only beaten guys like Schaub who has been exposed to not like the taste of leather at all, and Struve, who really does suck and he should be the guy all newcomers fight to get a little boost of hype when they go on to their next fight, which is their real debut. Anyone who loses to Struve should be immediately cut.

 

So Roy fights JDS and I was proven correct that Roy wasn't on that level when he was completely outclassed. He did however show what his chin is made of which is quite impressive.

 

I figured after this loss he'd be knocked down a few steps on the ladder and get a matchup accordingly, nope. He was thrown in there with Frank Mir. I have no doubt in my mind Roy was fed to Frank to give him a win and give him a little winning streak. I predicted this and was proven correct once again.

 

Finally they decided to give Roy a matchup that suited him. A badly fading CroCop who's standup is his biggest strength, yet he had been outstruck many times in the ufc... A winnable fight for Roy, but still a tough test. They both had lost to Frank, Mirko by severe KO. This fight showed that Roy isn't one to be taken lightly, (lol, lightly) however he isn't near the top of the division, maybe high top 10 if he's lucky. (Just shows the lack of depth in the hw division)

 

 

 

 

 

Fabricio Werdum is a tall guy, and quite flexible with underrated Muay Thai. His BJJ game complements his standup well in that if he gets hit he can fake being rocked and fall to his back, baiting guys into rushing him and getting submitted. To tell you the truth I think Werdum can avoid the big overhand right of Roy, and even if it lands, it's not guaranteed to KO Werdum. He's only been finished once, that's by the HW champ JDS. Overeem couldn't even knock him out. If he gets rocked he'll just fall to his back and hope Roy goes after him.

 

Now this is where everything becomes cloudy. The questions are if Werdum can fight off his back successfully if Big Roy is holding him down? Well this is where all the observations about Roy's standing in the heavyweight division come into play. Werdum has submitted a lot of well respected fighters, guys like Fedor and Overeem. Also lost to Overeem and JDS. Big Roy has beaten Imes, Schaub, Struve, and a very past it Crocop, he's lost to guys like Jeff Monson and Ben Rothwell, as well as Mir and JDS.

 

In general I just feel that Werdum has performed better against higher ranked competition then Nelson has. Now this does not automatically mean that Werdum will win. Take into consideration the performances Werdum has put on against comparable fighters to Roy. Gabriel Gonzaga is a well respected BJJ guy, also very big. Werdum was able to take him down and control him to a tko victory after enduring his lethal standup.

 

Werdum also performed well off his back against ANtonio Silva, who has proven to have a heavy top game and powerful G&P. Werdum was quite efficient at controlling the bigger man in the clinch and managed to drag him to the ground and even pull off some excellent sweeps from the bottom. Werdum showed great control from top position agaisnt a well respected BJJ fighter in this match.

 

Roy Nelson has shown that his wrestling isn't quite up to scratch and I would not be surprised at all if Werdum is able to drag him down, get on top and keep that position. I believe this fight will be decided by who can fight better off their back. I believe both guys will be on the bottom at different stages of the fight and the deciding factor will be who deals with that position better and/or faster.

 

I think it will be very difficult for either man to finish the other and don't expect this fight to end in anything other then a decision. However given both fighters history I have to give the slight edge to Fabricio Werdum. He's performed better against higher competition and he's also proven he is a better fighter off his back which will, in my opinion be the pivotal skillset in this fight.

 

 

 

 

TLDR:

Werdum has performed better against highter ranked opponents.

Roy's standup isn't going to get the job done against Werdum's underrated muay thai.

Both guys will get on top at different stages

The deciding factor will be who deals with being underneath the other better.

Werdum is better at fighting off his back

 

All IMO of course ;)

 

So do you agree or disagree? Vote who you think will win and please give opinions why.

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good topic...

 

you see werdum its kinda strange to me, i really respect his gameplan and skills but last fight with AO was pretty boring. He was avoiding the stand up and laying in his back because he knew he can be KO'ed by AO so he's gameplan was too much safe for MMA.

 

I dont see werdum taking an aggresive position in the cage, specially with nelson (which im not fan, i kinda dislike) but his hands seems to be very heavy and he can control on top position.

 

So i see 2 ways for this fight:

 

1. Werdum winning by submission forcing nelson go to top or his back

2. Nelson by UD because lack of werdum's action.

 

Good fight to wait the main event!

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first off that was a great read and everyone should take the little bit of time to read the entire thing.

 

secondly I do believe you made some good points about both fighters and I agree with what you said. However i feel that Werdum's bjj could be too overpowering for nelson and he could submit in the first round. I really don't think werdum will hesitate in getting an early takedown and keeping the fight there. after some time nelson will gas while on his back and werdum will take advantage.

 

that being said I really wish nelson would win but I just dont see it happening :(

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TLDR:

Werdum has performed better against highter ranked opponents.

 

Roy's standup isn't going to get the job done against Werdum's underrated muay thai.

Both guys will get on top at different stages

The deciding factor will be who deals with being underneath the other better.

Werdum is better at fighting off his back

 

All IMO of course ;)

 

So do you agree or disagree? Vote who you think will win and please give opinions why.

 

Werdum performed better against JDS? PFFT.

Roy foguht Mir and JDS and neither could finish him, if mir couldn't sub him and JDS couldn't knock him out, Werdum won't do either.

Werdum fought Overeem and sat on his back for the entire fight, and he didnt outstrike reem either, he hit him like twice

Sure, werdum is better fighting off his back, but he can't fight off his back when hes unconcious now can he? no

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Werdum performed better against JDS? PFFT.

Roy foguht Mir and JDS and neither could finish him' date=' if mir couldn't sub him and JDS couldn't knock him out, Werdum won't do either.

Werdum fought Overeem and sat on his back for the entire fight, and he didnt outstrike reem either, he hit him like twice

Sure, werdum is better fighting off his back, but he can't fight off his back when hes unconcious now can he? no[/quote']

 

I expected nothing less.

 

That just means Roy has a better chin which I am not disputing. They both got completely outclassed by JDS.

I never said Werdum will finish Roy. I don't think either man can finish the other.

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Roy Nelson belongs with the struves and morecrafts and mcdorkles. They keep trying to convince people that he is a good fighter for some reason.

When he loses to those dudes then you can say that. so far, in the ufc, he's only lost to the current champ and the dude who is prob next in line after Overeem.

 

 

 

 

As for this fight, i see Werdum wanting to stand with Roy and Werdum may very well get the better of him standing but he's going to underestimate his power and get KTFO.

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Lets look at Roys last 7 W crocop L mir L dos santos W struve W schaub L monson L arlovski. i can see a clear pattern here theres a skill level line that roy just cant get over. so which group do you put werdum in? personally i put him in the higher group an there for believe he will win this fight. i predict 3rd round sub.

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Lets look at Roys last 7 W crocop L mir L dos santos W struve W schaub L monson L arlovski. i can see a clear pattern here theres a skill level line that roy just cant get over. so which group do you put werdum in? personally i put him in the higher group an there for believe he will win this fight. i predict 3rd round sub.

id put money that Werdum isn't gonna submit Big Country...People underestimate his jits too much.

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id put money that Werdum isn't gonna submit Big Country...People underestimate his jits too much.

 

Roy has never been subbed i certainly dont under estimate his jj, i also think his body type makes it alot harder to apply certain subs. However with that being said werdum has been riding the pine in strikeforce for along time now and he knows what fighting in the ufc means. This is hands down the biggest fight of his career and i think the best werdum any of us has ever seen will show up.

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Roy has never been subbed i certainly dont under estimate his jj' date=' i also think his body type makes it alot harder to apply certain subs. However with that being said werdum has been riding the pine in strikeforce for along time now and he knows what fighting in the ufc means. This is hands down the biggest fight of his career and i think the best werdum any of us has ever seen will show up.[/quote']

you see i disagree only because he's been in the UFC before so its not like this is his big step up. He's been there before and cut.

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you see i disagree only because he's been in the UFC before so its not like this is his big step up. He's been there before and cut.

 

Yes and look how he got cut. He KO'd Gonzaga and Vera then lost to JDS and got the boot. I mean that seemed like abit of an over reaction. All he knows is last time he lost in ufc he got cut. Im sure thats weighing heavily on him an im sure he will do every possible thing in his power to make sure it doesnt happen again.

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The last time he was in the ufc and got cut wasn't because of his loss, it was because of a contract dispute. Werdum wanted more money and the ufc didn't feel that he deserved it. So they departed ways.

 

Now that strikeforce is owned by zuffa the alternative options for income in mma are dwindling. I doubt with a loss Werdum is going to cry about the new contract he just signed.

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Nelson has an iron head so Werdums stand up is not going to be worth much... if they end up striking Nelson should win without much trouble..

 

If this goes to the ground and Werdum ends up on top Nelson should be able to reverse him.. Frank was able to hold him down, but only because he is bigger, stronger and got great wrestling...

If Nelson ends up on top, i doubt Werdum can do much.. Triangles and armbars does not work against Nelson and Nelson is an expert of using his bodyweight to pin guys..

 

My conclusion is that nelson should win this match....

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Nelson has an iron head so Werdums stand up is not going to be worth much... if they end up striking Nelson should win without much trouble..

 

If this goes to the ground and Werdum ends up on top Nelson should be able to reverse him.. Frank was able to hold him down' date=' but only because he is bigger, stronger and got great wrestling...

If Nelson ends up on top, i doubt Werdum can do much.. Triangles and armbars does not work against Nelson and Nelson is an expert of using his bodyweight to pin guys..

 

My conclusion is that nelson should win this match....[/quote']

 

LOL!!! wow... I guess Roy should just not train stand up right? because his hard head is all he needs :rolleyes:

 

I gotta be honest here and say that the stupidest thing I've ever read was when somebody claimed that swimmers can't get choked out because they can hold their breath longer.

 

The quoted post is a close second.

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LOL!!! wow... I guess Roy should just not train stand up right? because his hard head is all he needs :rolleyes:

 

I gotta be honest here and say that the stupidest thing I've ever read was when somebody claimed that swimmers can't get choked out because they can hold their breath longer.

 

The quoted post is a close second.

 

he should of curse train his standup... but against someone like Werdum, who has no punching power and no accuracy Roy will seem unbeatable..

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he should of curse train his standup... but against someone like Werdum' date=' who has no punching power and no accuracy Roy will seem unbeatable..[/quote']

 

It's possible to outstrike someone even if you can't knock them out. Aggression alone can win fights. Just ask Diego Sanchez after the Martin Kampmann fight.

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