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Shuberling

So I was playing poker...

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No you wouldn't be a nit. Mathematically you have to make the call with top set. You should assume you're up against AK (possibly two AKs)' date=' K9/89, and JJ/1010/QJ/Q10/J10. If you are against two straights and the last option of sets or 2-pair your equity to win is 29%. Pete said the preflop action was a $90 4bet x four players = $360. Followed by preflop allins of at least $300 three ways (unless either of the other two players had less)=$900. Assuming Pete started the hand with $350 he has $260 left meaning he?s getting 4.8 to 1 ($260 to win roughly $1260), which equates to about 21% equity needed to make it a profitable call. His equity against the perceived opponent ranges was 29%.

 

In hindsight Pete make a good fold, only because he was up against two other sets.

 

That was a very nerdy poker post lol.[/quote']

 

Yep, except I really didn't want to bust out - Friday night game, wanted some cash in hand for Saturday. And I knew i was 30% to hit the house (at best - knowing someone probably had one of my Q outs and probably one of my J outs) So I looked at it this way: do I want to risk 300 to win 1300, when there is 70% chance or higher that I lose? I know it's fuzzy math, but it's too close for me and I'm not exactly the type of guy who plays enough for the small math margins to equal out in the long run. You feel me?

 

Plus - I took satisfaction knowing I was going to see everyone's hand.

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Yep' date=' except I really didn't want to bust out - Friday night game, wanted some cash in hand for Saturday. And I knew i was 30% to hit the house (at best - knowing someone probably had one of my Q outs and probably one of my J outs) So I looked at it this way: do I want to risk 300 to win 1300, when there is 70% chance or higher that I lose? I know it's fuzzy math, but it's too close for me and I'm not exactly the type of guy who plays enough for the small math margins to equal out in the long run. You feel me?

 

Plus - I took satisfaction knowing I was going to see everyone's hand.[/quote']

 

Oh for sure. When you're talking about hundreds of dollars, sometimes making a mathematically incorrect fold is a good personal choice. I know I've made MANY of incorrect folds simply due to monetary pressures (especially in tournaments where the pay jumps get huge at final tables). And the fact that you were up against two other sets made it a correct fold. You were only 11% to win and only getting 4.8 to 1 odds for your money. Knowing that you're going to see the hands no matter what is also a good point.

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Hey Pete' date=' the story you told is absolutely possible. I saw something very similar on youtube from a real poker tournament.

 

Just search for poker **** on youtube, you'll find amazing hands etc.[/quote']

 

I've seen a lot of them. But I can assure you that the hand was rigged. The odds of the hand I described are unreal. Wish a math wizard could run the odds for me.

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According to some math wizzes on the twoplustwo poker forum, the odds of just set over set over set happening in an 8-handed game are about between 175,000 to 225,000 to 1. That means the odds of it happening 4-handed are much much higher.

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According to some math wizzes on the twoplustwo poker forum' date=' the odds of just set over set over set happening in an [b']8-handed [/b]game are about between 175,000 to 225,000 to 1. That means the odds of it happening 4-handed are much much higher.

 

Yeah. Also have to factor in broadway flop. I have to think it is over 2 million to 1

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Yeah. Also have to factor in broadway flop. I have to think it is over 2 million to 1

 

I would say WAAAY more. I wouldn't be surprised if it was tens or hundreds of million to 1.

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I would say WAAAY more. I wouldn't be surprised if it was tens or hundreds of million to 1.

 

I wish I could figure it out. There should be some math nerds out there than could figure it out relatively easily. I've scanned the poker forums and found a few threads where some guys were arguing over the odds of set over set over set, in a nine handed game.

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