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People are still doing that thing where they point at the polls and act like they know what is going to happen??

Uhhm hello? The polls were WAY off last presidential election. And I mean, like, not even close. Then you still see some sheep show up and go "bIdEn GoNnA wIn bY 49% hUrR dUrR!!!!"

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52 minutes ago, cashfl0w said:

People are still doing that thing where they point at the polls and act like they know what is going to happen??

Uhhm hello? The polls were WAY off last presidential election. And I mean, like, not even close. Then you still see some sheep show up and go "bIdEn GoNnA wIn bY 49% hUrR dUrR!!!!"

Clinton got more votes than Trump in 2016.

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As a bit of a data nerd, I find polling quite interesting really.  Anecdotally it feels as if they've taken a beating in the past 4 years - they got Brexit wrong, Uk election in 2015 badly wrong, Scottish Independence was a lot less close than expected, and of course the US 2016 election result was completely wrong.

However, i did a bit of digging, and the average margin of error for US election polls has been 4% in the past 20 years.  In 2016 they were 4.8% out. In the UK, polls for the last 3 major elections have been more accurate than the historical average.

I guess the big thing is that a poll (for example) predicting Obama will win by 2% and he wins by 6% is less striking than one predicting Clinton wins by 2% and she promptly loses by 3%.  Same thing happened with the Brexit vote; the poll was actually more accurate than the average UK poll (only 3.5% out), but things were so tight that the predicted 2% Remain vote turned out to be a 1.5% Brexit vote.

All that said, I put more faith in my own private anecdotal evidence poll conducted across 7 states in America last summer and I still think Trump will win in November.  The current polls are probably reasonably accurate; people have a negative view of pretty much all world leaders right now because of Corona, but when it comes to actually voting in November, Corona, BLM, scandals, dementia etc won't matter. 

It's the economy, stupid. And whilst things will look pretty bleak, I suspect people will trust the right to bring things back on track more than the left.

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21 minutes ago, classicboxer said:

Clinton got more votes than Trump in 2016.

 

> but one must consider the fact that the popular vote means horse-chit & there were an estimated 7 million fraudulent votes

submitted by the dumbocrats . (I heard dead people were voting twice 🙃)

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27 minutes ago, classicboxer said:

Clinton got more votes than Trump in 2016.

Remind me who won the election.

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13 minutes ago, Bubba_Sparks said:

As a bit of a data nerd, I find polling quite interesting really.  Anecdotally it feels as if they've taken a beating in the past 4 years - they got Brexit wrong, Uk election in 2015 badly wrong, Scottish Independence was a lot less close than expected, and of course the US 2016 election result was completely wrong.

However, i did a bit of digging, and the average margin of error for US election polls has been 4% in the past 20 years.  In 2016 they were 4.8% out. In the UK, polls for the last 3 major elections have been more accurate than the historical average.

I guess the big thing is that a poll (for example) predicting Obama will win by 2% and he wins by 6% is less striking than one predicting Clinton wins by 2% and she promptly loses by 3%.  Same thing happened with the Brexit vote; the poll was actually more accurate than the average UK poll (only 3.5% out), but things were so tight that the predicted 2% Remain vote turned out to be a 1.5% Brexit vote.

All that said, I put more faith in my own private anecdotal evidence poll conducted across 7 states in America last summer and I still think Trump will win in November.  The current polls are probably reasonably accurate; people have a negative view of pretty much all world leaders right now because of Corona, but when it comes to actually voting in November, Corona, BLM, scandals, dementia etc won't matter. 

It's the economy, stupid. And whilst things will look pretty bleak, I suspect people will trust the right to bring things back on track more than the left.

Our polls are almost universally horsechit. You cannot poll 987 people milling around Washington DC, which votes at something like 91% Democrat, and tell me you're getting an accurate representation of the entire country. Same with Manhattan, or Seattle, or San Francisco. It's gibberish. It's purely a tool of manipulation. It's an effort to get you to stay in your house on Election Day.

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3 minutes ago, cashfl0w said:

Our polls are almost universally horsechit. You cannot poll 987 people milling around Washington DC, which votes at something like 91% Democrat, and tell me you're getting an accurate representation of the entire country. Same with Manhattan, or Seattle, or San Francisco. It's gibberish. It's purely a tool of manipulation. It's an effort to get you to stay in your house on Election Day.

Of course not.  And given your media is more partisan than the UK's, I'd take them with more than a pinch of salt.  That's why i put more faith in my own anecdotal poll.

I was just a bit surprised that the average margin of error was fairly low, and doesn't seem to be getting markedly worked.  Those stats were only nationwide polls though for presidential elections

 

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6 hours ago, Bezerker101 said:

joe-biden-thinking-looping.gif

You are smearing him as both a socialist and as too conservative.

Pick a lane, dummy.

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2 hours ago, cashfl0w said:

Our polls are almost universally horsechit. You cannot poll 987 people milling around Washington DC, which votes at something like 91% Democrat, and tell me you're getting an accurate representation of the entire country. Same with Manhattan, or Seattle, or San Francisco. It's gibberish. It's purely a tool of manipulation. It's an effort to get you to stay in your house on Election Day.

He’s losing in FOX news polls. Are you going to tell me that a random sampling of FOX viewers are mostly democrats.

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2 hours ago, cashfl0w said:

Remind me who won the election.

Putin.

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2 hours ago, Bezerker101 said:

 

> but one must consider the fact that the popular vote means horse-chit & there were an estimated 7 million fraudulent votes

submitted by the dumbocrats . (I heard dead people were voting twice 🙃)

Fake news. Trunk set out his most loyal hacks to investigate and they couldn’t find proof of anything except Russian meddling.

 

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3 hours ago, cashfl0w said:

Remind me who won the election.

I don't dispute the election,  just pointing out that the polls weren't really wrong.

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3 hours ago, Bezerker101 said:

 

> but one must consider the fact that the popular vote means horse-chit & there were an estimated 7 million fraudulent votes

submitted by the dumbocrats . (I heard dead people were voting twice 🙃)

If Trump loses, we'll find out if you are correct, because Trump will definitely dispute the election.

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I stand with cashbro in this particular thread.

Make America American Again

Tew many chanks towels darks and cholos

Edited by OmoGOAT
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Just now, classicboxer said:

I don't dispute the election,  just pointing out that the polls weren't really wrong.

Weren't all the exit polls calling States (electoral votes) for Hildabeast tho?  like by big margins? but then results started rolling and she got rekt

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1 minute ago, classicboxer said:

If Trump loses, we'll find out if you are correct, because Trump will definitely dispute the election.

 

If Trump loses, .. I will be eating Ramen for the next 20 years  👀

 

* I don't believe the country opens the door to that Commie chit you see on tv everyday now-

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1 minute ago, SVTContour98 said:

Weren't all the exit polls calling States (electoral votes) for Hildabeast tho?  like by big margins? but then results started rolling and she got rekt

yeah, they were way off-

tenor.gif

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12 minutes ago, SVTContour98 said:

Weren't all the exit polls calling States (electoral votes) for Hildabeast tho?  like by big margins? but then results started rolling and she got rekt

I read something today (don't ask me why....) that basically the exit polls were quite close to the actual result, but the projections made certain demographic assumptions that were not born out in reality.  Basically none of the pollsters thought that there would be a swing in female voters TOWARDS Trump, instead of away from him.  That screwed up a ton of the predictions.

It's a bit of a dark art...

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52 minutes ago, SVTContour98 said:

Weren't all the exit polls calling States (electoral votes) for Hildabeast tho?  like by big margins? but then results started rolling and she got rekt

At the end the polling wasn't outside their margin for error in most cases. It just turned out that most cases had the their numbers wrong by that margin.

 

Right now I'd say the polls are probably right Nd that if held today Trump will take a **** kicking. That said, the voting block is a fickle bunch and the people who are not locked in as right or left zombies can flip flop every day until the election.

Seeing that Nobody wants Joe Biden as president, one slip of the tongue could sway it back hard to Trumps favour, where as Trump opening his mouth and looking stupid would barely move the needle anymore as its expected. 

 

House and the Senate  will be the ones to watch.

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31 minutes ago, Bubba_Sparks said:

I read something today (don't ask me why....) that basically the exit polls were quite close to the actual result, but the projections made certain demographic assumptions that were not born out in reality.  Basically none of the pollsters thought that there would be a swing in female voters TOWARDS Trump, instead of away from him.  That screwed up a ton of the predictions.

It's a bit of a dark art...

I remember reading things like that days after the election. The polls clearly didn't pick properly,  but most if the results ended up in the margin for error.

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5 minutes ago, MoZZez said:

I remember reading things like that days after the election. The polls clearly didn't pick properly,  but most if the results ended up in the margin for error.

Yeah, we had a similar phenomenon in the last UK election.  The overall polls were pretty spot on - they predicted a swing of a few %age points to the Tories.  However, with Brexit dominating the election, that swing was virtually zero in "Remain" seats, and huge (like 15-20%) in Brexit seats, some of which had never voted conservative in living memory...but 15% was enough and so the Tories picked up a ton of seats, way more than if they had the 2 or 3 % swing across the board.

It's just not an exact science, but statistically, picking 1000 people out of 300 million will give you a surprisingly representative result (if they're sufficiently "random").

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I predict that Trump will win narrowly. I think is my home girl Jorgensen gets some steam she can cost him the election tbh honest

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45 minutes ago, Bubba_Sparks said:

 

It's just not an exact science, but statistically, picking 1000 people out of 300 million will give you a surprisingly representative result (if they're sufficiently "random").

I agree.

 

Cash is also right with a lot of the polls. I wouldn't say to the extreme he thinks, but CNN is not going through small town Texas and asking who will win, and Fox is not going into Washington DC and asking their opinions. Thats where we are getting the mix if Trump is winning and Biden is winning previously. 

 

The problem right now is even the right leaning polls are saying Trump is losing, which should indicate that there are problems currently.

 

But as I said to STV, Biden can have a "deplorable" moment, or say to someone he wants to grab guns and those polls will flip very fast. 

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If the election were today, the republicans would get routed. 
 

They got decimated in the midterms and the country wasn’t literally burning at that point.

A lot can happen in 4 months, but considering the south is about to show NYC how to really do a plague, I’m leaning towards Trunks prospects getting worse. 
 

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Not only does Trunk have to defend his chit record this time, but now he’s getting beat the **** up by republicans left and right.

A super-pac of ex-Bush administration officials formed today to oppose him. 

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18 minutes ago, SVTContour98 said:

someone make an official 2020 USSA Election Thread...make a public poll so we can track who predicts what.

@STVContour98

 

 

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36 minutes ago, MoZZez said:

@STVContour98

 

 

You might want to prevent allowing multiple votes before the trolls turn up. 

Nobody likes election fraud. Apart from the 7 million dead Democrats or whatever zerkbot was talking about. 

Edited by Bubba_Sparks
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8 minutes ago, Bezerker101 said:

Biden pulling out of debates >/ -200 @ my betting site - lmfao  🤡

 

image.png.b59328bbd8bf73be47d1dc98d5147887.png

 

 

Fake news.

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All the people tearing down statues can send me all their physical cash since it has images of racists white supremacists men all over it. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, StompGrind said:

All the people tearing down statues can send me all their physical cash since it has images of racists white supremacists men all over it. 

 

 

 

Goddamn slave owners all over the place!

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Stuff like this is why I've always disputed that the POTUS is the "most powerful man in the world"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53255964

Vlad's basically just cemented another 16 years in power.

Number 2 is Xi Jinping btw. Trump's probably number 3.

Obviously if we're talking most powerful person in the world then they're all below Her Majesty.

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11 minutes ago, Bubba_Sparks said:

Stuff like this is why I've always disputed that the POTUS is the "most powerful man in the world"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53255964

Vlad's basically just cemented another 16 years in power.

Number 2 is Xi Jinping btw. Trump's probably number 3.

Obviously if we're talking most powerful person in the world then they're all below Her Majesty.

hail to the queen baby

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4 hours ago, Bubba_Sparks said:

Stuff like this is why I've always disputed that the POTUS is the "most powerful man in the world"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53255964

Vlad's basically just cemented another 16 years in power.

Number 2 is Xi Jinping btw. Trump's probably number 3.

Obviously if we're talking most powerful person in the world then they're all below Her Majesty.

POTUS is the most powerful briefly for a time at least for the simple fact that USA is still the most powerful economically, militarily, technologically. & has more influence to apply political pressure. 

There are more constraints of the office & the political games are way different strategically. 

Vlad & Xi are both competent effective leaders. Ruthless as hell but pragmatically efficient none the less. They have an advantage of long game planning. 

Her Majesty is an absolute can. Rothschild's own her & snub her on the regular. She barely bodies House of Saud. 

e5d5ed337f6b094d8dc38d90f8fd7db8.jpg

What do you think would happen to Rothschild's in Russia, China or Saud acting like this....

 01_nathan_rothschild.jpg

The second they tried to pull that high & mighty I'm Sauron $hit over there they'd be poisoned, jailed and assets seized. 

That said this story of the Queen bodying Saud is hilarious GOAT like behavior. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1143919/the-queen-news-elizabeth-ii-saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-uk-visit-royal-today-ascot-video

Edited by StompGrind
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42 minutes ago, StompGrind said:

POTUS is the most powerful briefly for a time at least for the simple fact that USA is still the most powerful economically, militarily, technologically. & has more influence to apply political pressure. 

There are more constraints of the office & the political games are way different strategically. 

Vlad & Xi are both competent effective leaders. Ruthless as hell but pragmatically efficient none the less. They have an advantage of long game planning. 

Her Majesty is an absolute can. Rothschild's own her & snub her on the regular. She barely bodies House of Saud. 

Remind me how many countries you've annexed recently?  Sure you guys are number one in those things (except arguably technology), but the power is largely unused.  Putin fancies taking a bit of USSR back for sentimental value? No problem, he'll just sit out the moans and groans from the west because he knows he'll out-last all of them.  Likewise with China; they've basically invaded the Philipines and India, plus bought half of Africa without anyone really batting an eye-lid, and with limited accountability home or abroad.

Someone will no doubt point out that in a 1 v 1 war, Murica still bodies both of them, and that's undoubtedly true....but it will never come to that.  Like the honey badger, Putin/Xi do whatever they want.  Hence whilst Trump is the president of a more powerful country than either, he's not more powerful per se than either of them.  

I know you're only trolling about the queen so i'll give you a pass.

 

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Who is this Ghislaine Maxwell chick, and is she really important enough to interject herself into a political debate between me and Stomp about the queen?

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