Machida vs. Shogun Analysis

[alexbond]

After studying tape of Machida and Shogun I decided to make an analysis of how I think the fight could potentially turn out. Of course there are many possible outcomes but some are much more probable than others. Section 1 is about the strengths of both fighters. Section 2 is about how each fighter could potentially win the fight.

 

Section 1

 

Machida’s advantages: He has never been defeated not only has he never been defeated he has never been in serious trouble in a fight, so there is no sure method to victory against him. His striking is unorthodox so he is difficult to prepare for (this is the main reason for why he is so elusive). He has been training martial arts since he was 3 so he has great feel for how fighting works, this is why his timing is so awesome (The second reason he is so elusive). He has very tricky foot sweeps which he throws in quite nicely to throw off his opponents timing, this maybe his key to victory. He has an underrated ground game. And finally he has very quick and precise strikes.

 

Shogun’s advantages: He is a superior athlete, meaning he is faster, stronger, and more powerful; in a word he is more explosive. He has superior Muay Thai which helps him transition from striking to clinch and making him better in the clinch. He has unbelievable recovery time. He has the most effective kicks in MMA, not lightening quick like Machida’s but far more powerful. His BJJ is world class. And finally his biggest advantage coming into the fight I believe is his aggressive style, because he will take a shot to deliver one, while his shots do more damage, that combined with his outstanding chin makes him wrecking machine, ask Rampage.

 

Section 2

 

Machida can win this fight in a few ways. First because he is still somewhat of an enigma (due to the fact he has never had to use his full set of skills) Shogun may not be prepared for Machida’s full arsenal; so it seems a possible way of victory for Machida is in dominant fashion with some crazy new moves nobody has ever seen, but I doubt it. A more realistic method of victory is for Machida to win rounds by throwing Shogun’s timing off using foot sweeps and scoring points with his quick strikes. It is also possible that he will simply outpoint and possibly KO Shogun with strikes, however, this is a dangerous method because of Shogun’s power but if Machida’s skills are on a different level (which I doubt) then this could work.

 

Shogun can win this fight in many ways. He can simply keep the fight standing and use leg kicks to Machida’s lead foot which is in perfect position to get mauled, this will become a withering effect, causing Machida’s movement and power to be more and more debilitated as the fight goes on, eventually leading to a power shot connecting and dropping Machida. Another technique that Shogun can use is clinching, though I believe this is dangerous because of Machida’s sweeps even though Shogun may have the advantage in delivering damage he can quickly find himself out of position. And finally Shogun can go to the ground; this would make the fight the most variable, I don’t really know how good Machida is on the ground but I do know Shogun is extremely good so I would think he has the advantage there.

 

How do you think the fight will go down?

[Little_Kang]

I think you have too much time on your hands to right that post lol.

 

 

But you make good points. I think Machida should try to push Shogun into the later rounds. Shogun's gas tank is still questionable despite his Liddell win. Machida should concentrate on leg and body kicks to tire out Shogun

[Jade7]

Good analysis. I expect to see Machida using his amazing timing and elusiveness to try to keep Shogun off balance and avoid taking damaging shots while looking for counter-strikes and foot sweeps. I think both of these fighters would like to take the action to the ground on their own terms, and Shogun will be the aggressor, pursuing Machida and looking for the clinch/takedown. In the end I pick Machida to win by UD or maybe TKO in the later rounds.

[Andys562]

After studying tape of Machida and Shogun I decided to make an analysis of how I think the fight could potentially turn out. Of course there are many possible outcomes but some are much more probable than others. Section 1 is about the strengths of both fighters. Section 2 is about how each fighter could potentially win the fight.

 

Section 1

 

Machida?s advantages: He has never been defeated not only has he never been defeated he has never been in serious trouble in a fight' date=' so there is no sure method to victory against him. His striking is unorthodox so he is difficult to prepare for (this is the main reason for why he is so elusive). He has been training martial arts since he was 3 so he has great feel for how fighting works, this is why his timing is so awesome (The second reason he is so elusive). He has very tricky foot sweeps which he throws in quite nicely to throw off his opponents timing, this maybe his key to victory. He has an underrated ground game. And finally he has very quick and precise strikes.

 

Shogun?s advantages: He is a superior athlete, meaning he is faster, stronger, and more powerful; in a word he is more explosive. He has superior Muay Thai which helps him transition from striking to clinch and making him better in the clinch. He has unbelievable recovery time. He has the most effective kicks in MMA, not lightening quick like Machida?s but far more powerful. His BJJ is world class. And finally his biggest advantage coming into the fight I believe is his aggressive style, because he will take a shot to deliver one, while his shots do more damage, that combined with his outstanding chin makes him wrecking machine, ask Rampage.

 

Section 2

 

Machida can win this fight in a few ways. First because he is still somewhat of an enigma (due to the fact he has never had to use his full set of skills) Shogun may not be prepared for Machida?s full arsenal; so it seems a possible way of victory for Machida is in dominant fashion with some crazy new moves nobody has ever seen, but I doubt it. A more realistic method of victory is for Machida to win rounds by throwing Shogun?s timing off using foot sweeps and scoring points with his quick strikes. It is also possible that he will simply outpoint and possibly KO Shogun with strikes, however, this is a dangerous method because of Shogun?s power but if Machida?s skills are on a different level (which I doubt) then this could work.

 

Shogun can win this fight in many ways. He can simply keep the fight standing and use leg kicks to Machida?s lead foot which is in perfect position to get mauled, this will become a withering effect, causing Machida?s movement and power to be more and more debilitated as the fight goes on, eventually leading to a power shot connecting and dropping Machida. Another technique that Shogun can use is clinching, though I believe this is dangerous because of Machida?s sweeps even though Shogun may have the advantage in delivering damage he can quickly find himself out of position. And finally Shogun can go to the ground; this would make the fight the most variable, I don?t really know how good Machida is on the ground but I do know Shogun is extremely good so I would think he has the advantage there.

 

How do you think the fight will go down?[/quote']

 

My analysis. I may repeat some things you have said. I'm in favor of Machida. Here is why:

 

Machida is really elusive. He is the most elusive and least touched fighter in the UFC. His stance, kicks, punches, everything is so unorthodox when it comes to Machida. His style is so unique that no one can get a sparring partner and train for him because no one can copy his timing and his strikes. He is also a BJJ BlackBelt under Nogueria, and a BlackBelt in Machida Karate. His style is too unique, and Shogun will not be able to prepare effectively enough for it. You say he will use leg kicks to loosen up Machida? No, because Machida will see those coming with ease. He is way too elusive to be caught with a leg kick.

 

Alot of people don't take note of it, but Machida is incredibly strong, and probably just as strong as Shogun. Look at how he has muscled Ortiz (a wrestler, by the way) around. Machida displayed excellent takedown defense as well. Machida doesn't shoot for a takedown. Instead, he sweeps and slams them down with force and delivers effective GnP. If Shogun attempts to clinch, Machida will immediately sweep Shogun and have him down. Machida's sweeps are as unpredictable as his striking, and are almost unstoppable.

 

The team at Blackhouse is full of genius fighters. Machida is an extremely intelligent fighter, and he trains with Anderson Silva, who trained with Shogun for a really long time. Anderson will be crucial in this match, and will help Machida alot.

 

Machida capitalizes off of mistakes. Shogun is aggressive, and he is not perfect. He WILL make a mistake, and Machida will capitalize off of it, and Shogun will pay.

 

Another disadvantage for Shogun is is this is not Pride. No more head stomps, no more soccer kicks. A lot of his wins are not valid to current UFC standards. Also this is in an Octagon, not in a ring. Machida has delivered some severe blows and has down some insane sweeps by using the cage to his advantage.

 

If Shogun comes in with an aggressive style, then that will be his downfall. Why? He WILL make a mistake. Everyone makes one. Nobody can rush in perfectly and be aggressive without missing a few shots of misstepping a little bit. Machida allows NO ROOM WHATSOEVER for any error. And that is why Machida will win.

[Thechemicals]

Shogun is going to kill that boy.

[xdusty]

i agree with with 99% of the book i just read lol. the only thing i dont agree with is shogun having the most effective kicks. i think forrest, cro cop and thiago alves would argue that point with you lol. anyways....id love nothing more then to see shogun knock out machida or win period. but i think the only outcome will be a repeat of the rashad vs machida fight. chasing and agression arent the way to beat him. imo

[alexbond]

i agree with with 99% of the book i just read lol. the only thing i dont agree with is shogun having the most effective kicks. i think forrest' date=' cro cop and thiago alves would argue that point with you lol. anyways....id love nothing more then to see shogun knock out machida or win period. but i think the only outcome will be a repeat of the rashad vs machida fight. chasing and agression arent the way to beat him. imo[/quote']

 

Non of the people you mentioned are even close to Shogun's skills all around or in kicks. Shogun won't chase Machida, he's not an idiot, there's a difference between aggression and chasing.

[HULK3686]

i think rua will submit machida in round 3... and that will set up THE ANDERSON SILVA VS SHOGUN RUA... LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH.

[Jiu_Jitsu_Johnny]

i think rua will submit machida in round 3... and that will set up THE ANDERSON SILVA VS SHOGUN RUA... LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH.

 

I would love this ^

[StompGrind]

Machida's sweeps are overrated. If ( a big if I'll admit ) someone can get him in a clinch a double underhook bodylock position and press him up against the cage they can pretty much nullify his sweep game.

 

Problem is he usually tries to keep the fight in the center of the cage and circles off the line of attack so he's never really cornered to be in any danger of this. You just can't cut the ring off ( cage in this case ) against this guy without exposing yourself by chasing.

 

I don't think the leg kicks are going to do it either ( atleast not if thrown by itself ) If Shogun can set it up with his hands first maybe he'll land a few but Machida won't fall for it often enough to do any real damage I think.

 

Machida's a blackbelt in BJJ so it could be a stalemate even if Shogun can take him down.

 

Shogun's pretty much only got a small chance to catch him and even then he would have to sucker machida in and re-counter Machida's counter. If Shogun can get inside by making Machida miss his counter outside and he re-counters and immediatly follows up and never lets up he's got a solid chance of catching Machida. Shogun's best chance is actually is to be patient and wait for the oppurtunity even if it's a little boring and not characteristic or his aggressive style. He must stun Machida before going into full attack mode. If he lands some shots but doesn't hurt Machida and gets over aggressive he might walk right into Machida's traps and get KO'ed. He has to have patient aggressiveness. Machida's rarely hit so we really don't know how he'll react if he gets rocked or takes a barrage of srtikes on the inside.

[alexbond]

Machida's sweeps are overrated. If ( a big if I'll admit ) someone can get him in a clinch a double underhook bodylock position and press him up against the cage they can pretty much nullify his sweep game.

 

Problem is he usually tries to keep the fight in the center of the cage and circles off the line of attack so he's never really cornered to be in any danger of this. You just can't cut the ring off ( cage in this case ) against this guy without exposing yourself by chasing.

 

I don't think the leg kicks are going to do it either ( atleast not if thrown by itself ) If Shogun can set it up with his hands first maybe he'll land a few but Machida won't fall for it often enough to do any real damage I think.

 

Machida's a blackbelt in BJJ so it could be a stalemate even if Shogun can take him down.

 

Shogun's pretty much only got a small chance to catch him and even then he would have to sucker machida in and re-counter Machida's counter. If Shogun can get inside by making Machida miss his counter outside and he re-counters and immediatly follows up and never lets up he's got a solid chance of catching Machida. Shogun's best chance is actually is to be patient and wait for the oppurtunity even if it's a little boring and not characteristic or his aggressive style. He must stun Machida before going into full attack mode. If he lands some shots but doesn't hurt Machida and gets over aggressive he might walk right into Machida's traps and get KO'ed. He has to have patient aggressiveness. Machida's rarely hit so we really don't know how he'll react if he gets rocked or takes a barrage of srtikes on the inside.

 

Great post. I've seen interviews with Shogun where he talks about patience and that being the key to beating Machida, so when I say aggression I mean timed aggression. Also I don't think Shogun can just start throwing leg kicks, but that is exactly where Shogun's game comes into play, he is the master of using his punches to set up his kicks.

[alexbond]

I think you have too much time on your hands to right that post lol.

 

 

 

It's called work lol

[junbo79]

I think you have too much time on your hands

 

Says the man with 2500 posts in less than a year

 

Shogun is going to kill that boy.

 

Could you take the time to write another one of those "I am an mmagod" posts on your 102 picks? That was good stuff last time.

 

*******

 

Good read alexbond. I like reading stuff like this. Don't disagree with anything but you left it open enough where it's hard to argue.

 

*********

 

To further elaborate on the Machida timing and strikes type "Karate JKA Chinzo Machida vs Ryosuke Shimizu" in Youtube. I wish I could post the link, but it's worth a few minutes of your time to do.

[AngryAgent]

I like the details of the analyzing and break down you guys have come up with. Great thread. I don't have too much time to weigh in with a similar post but I just can't see Shogun beating Machida. Can't wait for the fight, should be a barn burner.

[UFCITOLDUSO]

 

Shogun can win this fight in many ways. He can simply keep the fight standing and use leg kicks to Machida’s lead foot which is in perfect position to get mauled' date=' this will become a withering effect, causing Machida’s movement and power to be more and more debilitated as the fight goes on, eventually leading to a power shot connecting and dropping Machida.

[/quote']

 

Good assessment of the two fighters. I would like to add that people key in on Machida's lead leg. He has said, and you can see it being done in the Nakamura fight, that he puts it out there for bait. I love Shogun's style but Machida is such a master of timing and distance that I believe he will capitalize on Shoguns errors. I look forward to an epic bout, though.

 

My analysis. I may repeat some things you have said. I'm in favor of Machida. Here is why:

 

Machida is really elusive. He is the most elusive and least touched fighter in the UFC. His stance' date=' kicks, punches, everything is so unorthodox when it comes to Machida. His style is so unique that no one can get a sparring partner and train for him because no one can copy his timing and his strikes. He is also a BJJ BlackBelt under Nogueria, and a BlackBelt in Machida Karate. His style is too unique, and Shogun will not be able to prepare effectively enough for it. You say he will use leg kicks to loosen up Machida? No, because Machida will see those coming with ease. He is way too elusive to be caught with a leg kick.

 

Alot of people don't take note of it, but Machida is incredibly strong, and probably just as strong as Shogun. Look at how he has muscled Ortiz (a wrestler, by the way) around. Machida displayed excellent takedown defense as well. Machida doesn't shoot for a takedown. Instead, he sweeps and slams them down with force and delivers effective GnP. If Shogun attempts to clinch, Machida will immediately sweep Shogun and have him down. Machida's sweeps are as unpredictable as his striking, and are almost unstoppable.

 

The team at Blackhouse is full of genius fighters. Machida is an extremely intelligent fighter, and he trains with Anderson Silva, who trained with Shogun for a really long time. Anderson will be crucial in this match, and will help Machida alot.

 

Machida capitalizes off of mistakes. Shogun is aggressive, and he is not perfect. He WILL make a mistake, and Machida will capitalize off of it, and Shogun will pay.

 

Another disadvantage for Shogun is is this is not Pride. No more head stomps, no more soccer kicks. A lot of his wins are not valid to current UFC standards. Also this is in an Octagon, not in a ring. Machida has delivered some severe blows and has down some insane sweeps by using the cage to his advantage.

 

If Shogun comes in with an aggressive style, then that will be his downfall. Why? He WILL make a mistake. Everyone makes one. Nobody can rush in perfectly and be aggressive without missing a few shots of misstepping a little bit. Machida allows NO ROOM WHATSOEVER for any error. And that is why Machida will win.[/quote']

 

Very well put. No one slows down time in the ring like Spider and Machida, making their opponents slight mistakes (flaws, really,) stand out so bad.

 

Machida's sweeps are overrated. If ( a big if I'll admit ) someone can get him in a clinch a double underhook bodylock position and press him up against the cage they can pretty much nullify his sweep game.

 

Problem is he usually tries to keep the fight in the center of the cage and circles off the line of attack so he's never really cornered to be in any danger of this. You just can't cut the ring off ( cage in this case ) against this guy without exposing yourself by chasing.

 

I don't think the leg kicks are going to do it either ( atleast not if thrown by itself ) If Shogun can set it up with his hands first maybe he'll land a few but Machida won't fall for it often enough to do any real damage I think.

 

Machida's a blackbelt in BJJ so it could be a stalemate even if Shogun can take him down.

 

Shogun's pretty much only got a small chance to catch him and even then he would have to sucker machida in and re-counter Machida's counter. If Shogun can get inside by making Machida miss his counter outside and he re-counters and immediatly follows up and never lets up he's got a solid chance of catching Machida. Shogun's best chance is actually is to be patient and wait for the oppurtunity even if it's a little boring and not characteristic or his aggressive style. He must stun Machida before going into full attack mode. If he lands some shots but doesn't hurt Machida and gets over aggressive he might walk right into Machida's traps and get KO'ed. He has to have patient aggressiveness. Machida's rarely hit so we really don't know how he'll react if he gets rocked or takes a barrage of srtikes on the inside.

 

Is Shogun capable of patient agressiveness? I would not call him careless, but if he slows down too much then he's out of his style. Same as if Machida would start coming forward agressively. That is messing with what has made these fighters successful.

I don't see how Shogun can build his fight plan around one or two moves, the way GSP beat Hughes by going low kick low kick and then head kick. That was his strategery and it worked on Hughes.

I don't think a strategy like that would work the same way on Machida.

Shogun has to be Shogun in order to have a chance to win this fight.

 

It is interesting that in this analysis that it seems to be on Shogun more to figure out how to beat Machida than the other way around.

 

I do think a vulnerability for Machida is an uppercut. He's very good a blocking shots with his arms/ shoulders while keeping his chin tucked. Maybe an overhand right/ left followed by an uppercut would get in but you would have to get him against the cage first or he will back/ circle out of it.

 

Or think you're bad enough to take one of his straight lefts to get you in range for an uppercut. I have seen him miss that shot.

 

I think an uppercut is Shogun's best chance. I don't know how much he uses it though.

[Predator7]

SHOGUN DOESN"T EVEN DESERVE A TITLE SHOT!!!!!! HE BARELY BEAT AND OLD MAN WHO WASN"T RECONDITIONED YET AND HAS HAD ONE GOOD VICTORY! WTF! NOT TO MENTION THE FACT HES FISH FOOD FOR MACHIDA

 

IF SHOGUN WINS THIS FIGHT I WILL RETIRE FROM WATCHING SPORTS PERIOD! 10000 to 1 odds shogun will win this fight! I don't care how good he was in pride! this is UFC!

 

\THIS IS A FLIPPEN OUTRAGE! JOKE/CAUGH! I Dont think machida is unbeatable but at least let us see someone who can give him a run for his money! aka anderson silva, .... thats about it! maybe, big maybe, rich Franklin, brandon vera i ever rather watch him fight wanderlei, but not flippen shogun! i have been sooo disappointed with shoguns performance thus far in ufc its beyond belief. and yes i love chuck but hes been hit too much. Bj penn has a better chance of beating him weighing 170 then shogun! BAH!!!!!

[Predator7]

LETS NOT FORGET MACHINDA HAS AN IRON CHIN WATCH HIM TAKE HIT AFTER HIT TO THE FACE 0:55 seconds in this video

 

MOST OF YOU NEVER SEEN MACHITA"S CHIN! WELL HERE IT IS

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsax3njvkHU&feature=PlayList&p=A8BDAAF74C4E1524&index=14

 

WATCH 0:55 seconds into the vid

[Calabretta_GSP]

great post up to this point in machida's career i think shogun will be his most difficult opponent i love obth fighters but i want machida to hold this belt for a long time

[CaptainSuperman]

^You sir, are obviously not an MMA fan, so if you do 'retire' from watching sports, no one would miss you.

 

One, lets not regard wheather or no Shogun deserves a shot, he has one, it's all that matters now. 2) Any fighter could beat any fighter. 3) I'll admit it, you're right, he has a great chin, all based on one or two hits from....a business executive looking man? Yeah, no. We'll wait to see if he has chin once he gets hit by a good MMA, one who has power or can at least put together a few hits.

[nick_wright]

LETS NOT FORGET MACHINDA HAS AN IRON CHIN WATCH HIM TAKE HIT AFTER HIT TO THE FACE 0:55 seconds in this video

 

MOST OF YOU NEVER SEEN MACHITA"S CHIN! WELL HERE IT IS

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsax3njvkHU&feature=PlayList&p=A8BDAAF74C4E1524&index=14

 

WATCH 0:55 seconds into the vid

 

what u think the dragons got a iron chin because he got slaped by some old man.

get real

[Billytk]

There are some really good points in here but I think the big things that aren't mentioned much are that Machida was in trouble before with Tito yes I know he won that fight no question but had that last round been 10 seconds longer Tito could have held on to the triangle and won instead of switching to a armbar and running out of time. Second thing is as far as Shogun we still dont' know if the "old Shogun" is back since the fight with Liddel only proved that it was past time for Chuck to hang up the gloves. I hope the Prime Shogun is back because if so this will be a amazing fight but if we see the Shogun that fought Forrest and Coleman this will be over quickly and not very competatively

[david_vaessen]

I disagree with alot of the analysis of Machida. The Shogun points are on par with reality. I think Machida can win this fight. I don't think he will but he can. imo he needs to be the agressor. shogun is somewhat sloppy backing up and he usually just gives up takedowns due to his bjj. I'd chase him down and be first to the punch and make him counter if I'm Machida. I would avoid the ground though, at all costs. Contrary to popular opinion, i do not beileve for one second that Lyoto can win this fight with counters. To effectively counter punch ou need range and timing. I can't see Machida timing the varied assault shogun brings forward not can i see him having better range. fighters that sit back and wait for Shogun don't remember how they lost. they don't remember much at all. If you let the most explosive athlete in MMA throw the kitchen sink at you while he comes forward you don't have a chance. He might not hit you the first 10 times but eventually he will and his power coming forward is ten times what it is if you chase him down. I think the key to beating shogun, aside form hoping he's fat and injured, is to be the agressor, much like fedor proved with cro cop and gonzaga followed suit. I am not sure that rua won't be able to figure something out anyways against Machida but Machida needs to keep him honest at the very least and not let Shogun always be the aggressor. If Machida can keep it 50/50 where he comes at Shogun some times and lets shogun come at him he will have a much better chance to win. He'll also have a much better chance to wear Rua out. If he just counterpunches and never attacks Rua will be just as dangerous in the fifth round as the first. I hope, personally, that machida hangs back and looks to counter because i want shogun to win but i think it'd be a huge mistake.

[Predator7]

^You sir' date=' are obviously not an MMA fan, so if you do 'retire' from watching sports, no one would miss you.

 

One, lets not regard whether or no Shogun deserves a shot, he has one, it's all that matters now. 2) Any fighter could beat any fighter. 3) I'll admit it, you're right, he has a great chin, all based on one or two hits from....a business executive looking man? Yeah, no. We'll wait to see if he has chin once he gets hit by a good MMA, one who has power or can at least put together a few hits.[/quote']

 

 

Thats pretty funny, i'm simply showing that if shogun gets a hit and thats a, big "IF" its not gonna drop machita if you guys want to put your money on shogun be my quest ! ! alot of you are fans of a particular fighter, but if it comes down to it, are you really gonna bet on shogun winning this fight?

 

Heres the video of machita taking some hits http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsax3...E1524&index=14

 

so others can be entertained watch 0:55 seconds into this fight

 

I can be wrong but id put my money on machita, if shogun wins it will be a matt serra vs gsp all over again

[MAStudent]

I guess its hard to tell when people are joking on here.

 

I have ranted and wrote a lot on this in another thread. I think I'll just bullet a few relevant points.

 

Shogun

*Aggressive striking and kicking, but leaves a lot of holes while he's doing it. (+ Machida)

 

*BJJ from the olden days, don't know that he is updated. Remember a virtual nobody Vinnie Maghales (sp?) sheepishly pointing out Big Nog's BJJ is not up to date on TUF? Same thing. (+ Machida)

 

*Though not what I consider technical, Shogun can punch from a long ways away. He is also willing to throw any technique from any position. (even or maybe + Shogun)

 

* Gas tank still needs to be proven to me (+ Machida)

 

Machida

* He is not magic. I guess elusive works, but same with A Silva, they just watch body mechanics and positioning. You can only do certain things with your arms and legs in certain positions and with your weight distributed on your feet a certain way. They watch this and look for what may be coming. As soon as they see a hint of it, they do the bob or parry. Thats why you see both guys bob and weave away from punches etc before they are thrown. Shogun is unpredictable, so that may be his only chance, but he leaves so many holes while being predictable, I don't think it will get to that. (+ Machida)

 

*He strikes ARE orthodox for Karate, though I have never seen some of them. People need to watch his style of Karate to see his set up. Everyone has to set up their strikes some way. With A Sivla on his side, who trained with Shogun a long time, looks like Machida advantage (+ Machida)

 

* Machida is gifted at seeing possibilites, be cause he never seems to get rocked, so he is like a kid playing a video game for the millionth time. His brain has a chance to abstractly put things together. If Shogun can rock him...(+ Machida)

 

* Gas tank- Machida is used to going the distance with his active style. (+Machida)

 

*The biggest thing for Machida is that his confidence and realization of "Hey, the things I thought were accurate are all panning out" is just exploding right now. He is seeing the court the way Magic and Bird did in the old days. Shogun is just going out there and winging it. (++++Miachida)

 

I like both guys, so I really can't lose, but I think Machida by either something embarassing in the late 1st, early 2nd, or by bully beat down in the 4th when Shogun gets tired.

[Xhojin]

He can simply keep the fight standing and use leg kicks to Machida?s lead foot which is in perfect position to get mauled' date=' this will become a withering effect

 

[/quote']

 

Why do people keep saying this?

 

Every friggen Machida fight people talk about his lead leg and flat footed stance and how easy it is to "maul" it and how it's his big weaknessl, yadda yadda yadda...

 

The only problem with this argument is that in what 14 fights now no one has been able to do it. Obviously it is less of a weakness then people are claiming. Yet no one acknowledges this.

[MAStudent]

"No! Please don't throw me into the briar patch"- Br'er (Briar) Rabbit

[BringMeTheHorizon]

I think that his kicks aren't that devistating and I believe the clinch is still questionable about Lyoto we don't see him in it enough

I think Rua's aggression will be his downfall for him but I am excited to see the fight but I see another win for the Dragon

[StompGrind]

Is Shogun capable of patient agressiveness? I would not call him careless' date=' but if he slows down too much then he's out of his style. Same as if Machida would start coming forward agressively. That is messing with what has made these fighters successful. I don't see how Shogun can build his fight plan around one or two moves, the way GSP beat Hughes by going low kick low kick and then head kick. That was his strategery and it worked on Hughes. I don't think a strategy like that would work the same way on Machida.

Shogun has to be Shogun in order to have a chance to win this fight.

 

It is interesting that in this analysis that it seems to be on Shogun more to figure out how to beat Machida than the other way around.

 

I do think a vulnerability for Machida is an uppercut. He's very good a blocking shots with his arms/ shoulders while keeping his chin tucked. Maybe an overhand right/ left followed by an uppercut would get in but you would have to get him against the cage first or he will back/ circle out of it.

 

Or think you're bad enough to take one of his straight lefts to get you in range for an uppercut. I have seen him miss that shot.

 

I think an uppercut is Shogun's best chance. I don't know how much he uses it though.[/quote']

 

Huh!? Where did I say he should build a plan around a few moves? I said the leg kicks alone will not work. He needs to draw machida in an counter unleashing an aggressive but calculated barrage. He needs to be patient at first to get Machida to open up or bait Machida to counter by pretending to be aggresive to make Machida open up out of his cocoon. If he can get Machida to turtle up blocking a barrage of punches and never allows him his advantage ( distance ). he can eventually catch Machida. No one not even Machida can take that kind of pressure for long something will eventually land. Shogun needs to know exactly when to turn it on or turn it off when the opportunity passes he needs to let up and start over again. Patient aggresiveness is very key in this fight. If he chases he's playing Machida's game. If Machida can't keep the distance he's playing Shoguns game.

 

Basically both guys need to bait and stop hit the counter attack and immediately follow-up with a barrage and never let up unless they escape then start over again and again like before baiting, then counter barrage. The only difference is Machida needs to play the outside game and Shogun needs to get inside where hooks and uppercuts are his game.

[UFCITOLDUSO]

Huh!? Where did I say he should build a plan around a few moves? I said the leg kicks alone will not work. He needs to draw machida in an counter unleashing an aggressive but calculated barrage. He needs to be patient at first to get Machida to open up or bait Machida to counter by pretending to be aggresive to make Machida open up out of his cocoon. If he can get Machida to turtle up blocking a barrage of punches and never allows him his advantage ( distance ). he can eventually catch Machida. No one not even Machida can take that kind of pressure for long something will eventually land. Shogun needs to know exactly when to turn it on or turn it off when the opportunity passes he needs to let up and start over again. Patient aggresiveness is very key in this fight. If he chases he's playing Machida's game. If Machida can't keep the distance he's playing Shoguns game.

 

Basically both guys need to bait and stop hit the counter attack and immediately follow-up with a barrage and never let up unless they escape then start over again and again like before baiting' date=' then counter barrage. The only difference is Machida needs to play the outside game and Shogun needs to get inside where hooks and uppercuts are his game.[/quote']

 

Relax. I was referring to others who are fixated on Machida's lead leg when I was summing up my post. I actually don't disagree with you and if I didn't make it apparent in what I wrote then please accept my humble apology. Except that I think Machida needs to be Machida, and it's Shogun who needs to, "smarten his gameplan up a bit."

[StompGrind]

Relax. I was referring to others who are fixated on Machida's lead leg when I was summing up my post. I actually don't disagree with you and if I didn't make it apparent in what I wrote then please accept my humble apology. Except that I think Machida needs to be Machida' date=' and it's Shogun who needs to, "smarten his gameplan up a bit."[/quote']

 

Sorry If I didn't sound relaxed;) I agree Shogun is the one that needs to play a smarter game and adjust his style a bit for this fight. Machida already has a smart game so he just needs to continue doing what he always does with maybe a few new surprizes to really throw shogun off.