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Analysis of why Shogun lost so badly.


StompGrind

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First off this isn't a Shogun excuse thread like typical nubs do. It isn't a Shogun sucks thread either like the typical nubs make who lack respect for fighters. It's a look at what went wrong for Shogun and what went right for Jones and a breakdown of why and how.

 

First lets look at some things that imo were disadvantages for Shogun.

 

1. Shogun coming off an injury and inactivity had to affect his conditioning, his technique, and timing were not where they could have been. This is huge considering the counter point i will make about Jones later.

 

2. Shogun's camp made the mistake of assuming Jones and Rashad was a similar challenge

and on the surface they're both wrestlers and good atheletes but that's where there similarities end. Jones has a different frame, different reach, different leverage, unorthodox striking and grapples nothing like Rashad etc. Totally different animal to prepare for and getting a sparring partner to mimick the problems Jones would present is hard to do with only six weeks. This is huge considering the counter point i will make about Jones later.

 

3. Mentally Shogun coming coming off an injury and inactivity in the back of his mind he had to question is my conditioning were it needs to be. Does this change the fight plan? Will i be a little more desperate to take him out quick, be patient first and then turn it up etc. What mentality did he have after hearing Jones was the favorite? Shogun was angry at this i heard. This puts even more pressure on him to perform and prove why he's the champion on top of in the back of his mind coming off injury, inactivity a new opponent and only six weeks to prepare. This is huge considering the counter point i will make about Jones later but maybe not as big of a deal as the first two points above.

 

 

Now lets look at Jones.

 

1. His conditioning was peaking and his technique and timing were sharp coming off the fight with Bader, he had no injures other than a few bumps and bruises. Possibly the best he's ever been.

 

2. He had already prepared for Shogun in helping Rashad prepare. Also in light of point # 1 for Shogun they had to know that Shogun wouldn't be prepared as well physically and pehaps a little rusty not having competed in a while that so im sure they worked considered that into the game plan. Add to this Jackson brilliant mind for strategy.

 

3. Mentally Jones is coming off of the greatest win of his career in Bader. He also didn't have much time for doubt to sink in. However he was under alot of pressure being thrust into a world title right away against a calibre of opponent he's never faced, and all the talk of will he live up to the hype. To his credit he believed in himself and didn't let it affect him too much and although he was clearly nervous more than I've seen him before he handled it well and it lit a fire under his *** to prove himself and his hype.

 

Also i know that the plan was to come out strong and apply pressure to Shogun right away so he couldn't find his rhythem, get into his game and takeover and also to push the pace from the start to put Shogun's cardio to the test. When the fight started, there was tension with Jones and he was a little jittery but that quickly faded and he found his groove and relaxed a little more. You could also tell there was some pent up rage about proving himself. Kudo's to him he handled it well. Kudo's to him for dealing with the pressure well and performing so well.

 

All of this is huge and shouldn't be overlooked. Now lets talk about the fight.

 

Jones standup was brilliant, he used his reach well to keep Shogun at bay and mixed his strikes head to toe doing damage to the head, body and legs and he kept Shogun guessing about takedowns as well. He never allowed Shogun to get into his game and even had Shogun backing up for most of the standup. That reach has to be frustrating for Shogun, everytime he pressed he eats a kick in the knee, everytime he rushed him Jones avoids it easily makes him miss or looks to clinch. When they clinch he's working him with knees and pressing him against the cage and when Shogun thinks he's looking for the takedown BAM massive elbow.

 

Jones ground game was even more impressive he was well prepared for Shogun's halfguard game and shut it down in textbook fashion by constantly having his forearm on his neck, a whizzer on the underhook arm and using his head to block Shogun's attempts to crawl under and transition to sweep or leglock. Even when Shogun did manage to get double underhooks he kept his hips back, low with a strong wide base and made Shogun carry his weight. When Shogun relaxed after having his attempts shutdown Jones attacks with dangerous elbows and Shogun has to get active again then Jones rinses repeats shutting him down then attacking when Shogun relaxes. Meanwhile Shogun is taking damage and getting more and more tired, desperate and frustrated. He also passed a few times and Shogun had to work to get back or be faced with even worse danger like a crucifix with elbows.

 

When Shogun is in full guard Jones still doesn't allow him to relax he's active with elbows and punches while kneeling and mixes in stacking him to throw big shots. Constantly working and Shogun is taking more damage and getting increasingly tired. Shogun is thinking **** this is a ****ing nightmare im safe nowhere which makes him off his game more, more desperate and more tired and it also gives Jones more confidence because he can sense he's breaking him.

 

Brilliant performance for Jones.

 

So there's my summary just wanted to say full respect to both fighters. Im a little annoyed at the lack of respect shown for fighters these days.

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id like to add that shogun may have been too active from the guard going for sweeps and submissions, while already dealing with having to defend the larger guy on top of him.

 

his best bet may to have been a bit more defensive, and pick his spots to attack and sweep. to conserve his energy a bit more. especially since he wasnt even threatening with anything off his back, but kept working and working. a bit of a wasted effort in my opinion.

 

Jones was just calm and collected on top, and picked his spots. Jones looked like the veteran with the pois he showed.

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id like to add that shogun may have been too active from the guard going for sweeps and submissions' date=' while already dealing with having to defend the larger guy on top of him.

 

his best bet may to have been a bit more defensive, and pick his spots to attack and sweep. to conserve his energy a bit more. especially since he wasnt even threatening with anything off his back, but kept working and working. a bit of a wasted effort in my opinion.

 

Jones was just calm and collected on top, and picked his spots. Jones looked like the veteran with the pois he showed.[/quote']

 

The problem with that is everytime he relaxed Jones got very offensive which made Shogun have to get active or take damage. Everytime he got active Jones shut him down with control and made him even more tired.

 

One thing he should have done is abanden his halfguard game and use that energy to work to full guard and when in the full guard use an open guard and try to use heels on hips to scramble or try to work the de la riva guard for sweeps, leglocks and reversals. Jones left enough space especially when he was stacking and because of his length there were gaps there for Shogun.

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I disagree with the conditioning part. There is a difference between conditioning and what's commonly known as ring rust.

 

I agree ring/cage rust is a definite factor. That was an almost year-long layover between fights.

 

But like Rogan once said, The only thing you can control in a fight is your cardio. Cardio/conditioning is something that every fighter needs to take care of in training camp. Rua has shown incredibly lousy cardio since he entered the UFC when compared to his Pride days when he was known as the Supernova.

 

All those elbows to the liver, knees to the liver, left hooks to the liver didn't help either. Bones just had a superior game plan and a deep engough tool chest to do it.

 

He made Shogun look one-dimensional last night.

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2. Shogun's camp made the mistake of assuming Jones and Rashad was a similar challenge

and on the surface they're both wrestlers and good atheletes but that's where there similarities end. Jones has a different frame' date=' different reach, different leverage, unorthodox striking and grapples nothing like Rashad etc.[/quote']

 

Where did you find this information out from? Did Rua's team say this or did you make it up?

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Where did you find this information out from? Did Rua's team say this or did you make it up?

 

I saw it in a pre fight interview a week or two ago i believe. Shogun talked about how it's not a big deal about the 6 weeks because Rashad and Jones are similar there both wrestlers etc.

 

They may have prepared a little differently and im sure they did but i have to assume by that statement that the thinking was they were very similar fighters.

 

Maybe that was a ruse and they didn't really believe that and it's not like he's gonna say Im can't possibly prepare for a guy like Jones on such short notice Im ****ed

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When the fight started' date=' there was tension with Jones and he was a little jittery but that quickly faded and he found his groove and relaxed a little more. You could also tell there was some pent up rage about proving himself. Kudo's to him he handled it well. Kudo's to him for dealing with the pressure well and performing so well..[/quote']

 

I hardly think opening up with a flying knee and spinning kick shows tension or jitters. Jones looked confident as hell right from the weigh in the day before and walking up to the cage on fight night.

Shogun on the other hand looked afraid right from the get go.

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Where did you find this information out from? Did Rua's team say this or did you make it up?

 

When asked if they had to change there game plan after finding out they were going to go up against Jones instead of Evans Shogun and his manager responded by saying that since they are both great wrestlers they didn't have to change it up that much. That was a mistake on their part. I cant find a link but it was basically in a interview by Ariel Helwani

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I saw it in a pre fight interview a week or two ago i believe. Shogun talked about how it's not a big deal about the 6 weeks because Rashad and Jones are similar there both wrestlers etc.

 

They may have prepared a little differently and im sure they did but i have to assume by that statement that the thinking was they were very similar fighters.

 

Maybe that was a ruse and they didn't really believe that and it's not like he's gonna say Im can't possibly prepare for a guy like Jones on such short notice Im ****ed

 

If that is the case then I am sure it was nothing more than fighter bravado, rather than admit that Jones is a monster and provides a totally different set of problems than fighting Rashad.

Plus Rua's camp are not fools, they would have to be blind to think Evans and Jones are similar. The 6 weeks notice played it's part no doubt, but then again I don't think 12 weeks would have made any difference to the outcome.

The only way Rua could have won would be to fully commit to brutal leg kicks right from the bell and hope to catch Jones getting sloppy in his stand up.

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I hardly think opening up with a flying knee and spinning kick shows tension or jitters. Jones looked confident as hell right from the weigh in the day before and walking up to the cage on fight night.

Shogun on the other hand looked afraid right from the get go.

 

I do think he was more nervous than in previous fights. I noticed it at the weigh in he looked tense and the pre fight he did as well.

 

He did come out a little wild imo has nothing to do with what techniques he used.

 

Although I do think it that was plan to come out strong like that though especially since Shogun came in right after him.

 

At the same time i agree he was he very relaxed but you could feel some tension in him that first minute more so than i've seen in previous fights.

 

That might have just been me though.

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I do think he was more nervous than in previous fights. I noticed it at the weigh in he looked tense and the pre fight he did as well.

 

He did come out a little wild imo has nothing to do with what techniques he used.

 

Although I do think it that was plan to come out strong like that though especially since Shogun came in right after him.

 

At the same time i agree he was he very relaxed but you could feel some tension in him that first minute more so than i've seen in previous fights.

 

That might have just been me though.

 

Perhaps, but he sure enough looked cool as f*ck after the first take down. Shogun had nothing after that, a few looping punches that Jones easily dodged. Who in the LHW has the answer to Jon Jones? Damned if I know, only Anderson Silva if he decides to move up.

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If that is the case then I am sure it was nothing more than fighter bravado' date=' rather than admit that Jones is a monster and provides a totally different set of problems than fighting Rashad.

Plus Rua's camp are not fools, they would have to be blind to think Evans and Jones are similar. The 6 weeks notice played it's part no doubt, but then again I don't think 12 weeks would have made any difference to the outcome.

The only way Rua could have won would be to fully commit to brutal leg kicks right from the bell and hope to catch Jones getting sloppy in his stand up.[/quote']

 

I agree it probably wouldn't have changed too much.

 

I think he needed more movement especially head movement and try to get Jones to chase him then cut him off with combination punching ending with kicks.

 

If he came out firing brutal kicks i think he'd be taken down in the first 10 seconds.

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Perhaps' date=' but he sure enough looked cool as f*ck after the first take down. Shogun had nothing after that, a few looping punches that Jones easily dodged. Who in the LHW has the answer to Jon Jones? Damned if I know, only Anderson Silva if he decides to move up.[/quote']

 

Rampage could give him trouble but he will have to take Jones out quickly or picked apart he will be.

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Perhaps' date=' but he sure enough looked cool as f*ck after the first take down. Shogun had nothing after that, a few looping punches that Jones easily dodged. Who in the LHW has the answer to Jon Jones? Damned if I know, only Anderson Silva if he decides to move up.[/quote']

 

I think Machida would give JJ a tough fight. Stylistically Machida is much like JJ and perhaps another 'unorthodox' fighter would do well.

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It doesnt make it not an excuse thread if you precede your excuses by saying their not excuses. This is pretty much what it looks like.

 

The following is not a smiley face...

:)

 

There not excuses just giving reasons i thought he lost so badly. I gave full credit to Jones.

 

It takes nothing away from Jones because Shogun wasn't prepared. That Shoguns fault not Jones.

 

Even if everything worked out perfect for Shogun it likely wouldn't have been much different but i do think it would have been a more competitive fight.

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Excellent analysis Grind. Jones was at his best, full of flare and confidence, Shogun was not. The beatdown would've been the same if not worse had Shogun had more endurance. Shogun is a realist, he knew it was going to happen in his heart of hearts. It may have gone differently had he not gotten clocked with the kick and combos in the first round. Gotta still love Shogun. In the end, Shogun entertains and goes for the finish. Jones is just a big, tall, tough, smart, bedazzling beast of a fighter, with so much creative wrestling at his base, I'm not sure anyone can beat this guy at 205.

 

Good thread.

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[

One thing he should have done is abanden his halfguard game and use that energy to work to full guard and when in the full guard use an open guard and try to use heels on hips to scramble or try to work the de la riva guard for sweeps, leglocks and reversals. Jones left enough space especially when he was stacking and because of his length there were gaps there for Shogun.

 

Yeah if definatley seemed like there was room in full guard and the transitions to half for a scissor sweep instead of hooking the leg with his arm.

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Stylistically, Jones matches up almost perfectly with Shogun.

 

A tall, rangey striker with a much larger reach that can take him down at will. Then add in the extra advantage of Shogun coming off of a long layoff. However, the long layoff was apparently meant so that Shogun could come in peak physical after the surgery.

 

Shogun was dominated on the ground and on the feet, badly. No excuses, he was outclassed. Machida is the fighter with the best style to go against Jones IMO, but i don't know if he could get past the reach and considerable size advantage that Jones would have.

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learning from your mistakes is not making excuses. that's why sometimes when fighters have rematches, they evaluate how in the previous fight they went wrong or did well. if the reasons why Shogun lost are called "excuses" then I would say watching a fighter's previous fights to look for weaknesses is "cheating", but of course it isn't cheating.

 

An "excuse" means criticism doesn't count/isn't legit.

 

for example: Jones headbutted Shogun which is illegal and was never called, therefor Shogun should have won the fight. That's an excuse because Jones's illegal headbutt probably didn't effect the fight at all.

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Shogun was too slow to implement the game plan he had. The problem was basically he didn't pull the trigger. Jones is too long to play the distance game with and he also has good speed. Granted none of his strikes are bone breakers on their own but good solid shots like that add up and Shogun couldn't respond. Shogun also dropped for a leg on a few occasions which is a big mistake against and unorthodox wrestler with long limbs. Shogun could have easily taken the fight given a different game plan. Against a guy as long as Jones who is faster and very athletic and unorthodox Shogun should have been unleashing flurries of punches and kicks mixing it up every time to be unpredictable. Jones is weakest when backing up and Shogun had him do that for a couple brief moments in the fight. Shogun should have chased him down and shown his array of strikes and when Jones did strike back use his superior muy thai to take advantage of holes. The best thing to do against Jones is to be very agressive and chase him down, even if he catches you and you get knocked out you would have a lot better chance that way then playing the distance game with him. Thoughts?

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3 words

 

Jones is better

 

On that night. You have to realize when skill is about the same fights are mostly luck. Now I think Jones will take Shogun 8 times out of 10, but there is still that chance that Rua would shine in a rematch with how good these guys are you cant really be sure of any outcome.

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id like to add that shogun may have been too active from the guard going for sweeps and submissions' date=' while already dealing with having to defend the larger guy on top of him.

 

his best bet may to have been a bit more defensive, and pick his spots to attack and sweep. to conserve his energy a bit more. especially since he wasnt even threatening with anything off his back, but kept working and working. a bit of a wasted effort in my opinion.

 

Jones was just calm and collected on top, and picked his spots. Jones looked like the veteran with the pois he showed.[/quote']

 

I disagree. Shogun did very well in the first round from the bottom. He made Jones play defense and work hard just to keep position. Jones barley landed any gnp in the first round, except for a couple short elbows.

 

I dont know if his conditioning wasn't where it needed to be, or the grappling coupled with being rocked just exhausted him. Either way Jones showed that he was the better fighter imo.

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Shogun was too slow to implement the game plan he had. The problem was basically he didn't pull the trigger. Jones is too long to play the distance game with and he also has good speed. Granted none of his strikes are bone breakers on their own but good solid shots like that add up and Shogun couldn't respond. Shogun also dropped for a leg on a few occasions which is a big mistake against and unorthodox wrestler with long limbs. Shogun could have easily taken the fight given a different game plan. Against a guy as long as Jones who is faster and very athletic and unorthodox Shogun should have been unleashing flurries of punches and kicks mixing it up every time to be unpredictable. Jones is weakest when backing up and Shogun had him do that for a couple brief moments in the fight. Shogun should have chased him down and shown his array of strikes and when Jones did strike back use his superior muy thai to take advantage of holes. The best thing to do against Jones is to be very agressive and chase him down' date=' even if he catches you and you get knocked out you would have a lot better chance that way then playing the distance game with him. Thoughts?[/quote']

 

I agree somewhat and i think there is a weakness there if you can get Jones back peddeling against the cage he's not nearly as effective and he often has his chin a little high when he does.

 

However if you rush him you open yourself for takedowns and who the hell wants to be on the bottom with this guy.

 

Also i think if there is a hole there it won't be there very long. This kid learns fast.

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It doesnt make it not an excuse thread if you precede your excuses by saying their not excuses. This is pretty much what it looks like.

 

The following is not a smiley face...

:)

 

its called being objective ****** bag....he obviously just analyzed the fight from a neutral perspective without either fighters nuts in his mouth...which by the look of your nickname...you got a huge pair of salty black balls in your mouth

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